Home/Away Offensive Angles For Both Teams Point to High-Scoring Game Between Nationals & Mets

Charles Stark

Friday, July 31, 2015 11:28 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 31, 2015 11:28 PM UTC

Although this has been the year of the pitcher I'm going to back over the total today when the Washington Nationals take on the New York Mets.

Both teams look just a little bit different now and this will be a great matchup of two teams battling for the NL East. In my opinion the line is just a little bit too low and we should see a bit more offense than anticipated.  

Oddsmakers came out with this game at 6.5, which makes some sense considering the pitching matchup, but the higher juice was on the Over. At most places the Over is at -115, but at Bookmaker you can get the Over 6.5 at -105. In my opinion this line is most likely going to go up and you might want to wait to get better MLB odds, but that is just my estimation.


Pitching Matchup
For the Nationals rookie Joe Ross gets the call with a 3.03 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, those are good numbers and what I like about him is that he is a good strikeout pitcher with 34 K's in 32 innings. He has pitched well so far this season but being a rookie he hasn't gotten out of any game unscathed, although he does tend to keep the hit totals down. He is coming off a pretty decent outing against Pittsburgh where he allowed three earned runs in six innings off a five hits. What I like about this matchup is that the Mets just saw him a couple of weeks ago, and they are simply a much better hitting team at home.

Jacob deGrom takes the hill for the Mets and he has been stellar this season with a 2.05 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP. Like Ross, I like the fact that the Nationals just saw him a couple weeks ago even if they only got a couple runs off him in six innings. Overall this season against Washington he has a 3.63 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, add this fact to what was previously mentioned about the Nats getting a second look at him and I can see Washington pushing across a few runs.


Jekyll and Hyde
Along with the Colorado Rockies, the New York Mets are completely different team at home than they are on the road at the plate. They go from averaging 4.13 runs per game at home to under three runs per game on the road. What is probably the most interesting about this matchup though is that Washington has the same type of difference but opposite. The Nationals average more runs on the road than they do at home, averaging 3.72 runs per game at home compared to 4.60 runs per game on the road. In OPS there is this same disparity with these two teams with Washington being a stronger road team than at home, and the Mets being the stronger home team than on the road. This is another good angle for us to exploit backing the over today.

Although this seems to be a solid pitching matchup between these two very good young pitchers, I like for both Washington and New York to have a lot of quality at-bats today. With the home and away offensive angle that affects both teams, look for a surprisingly higher final than people anticipate, back over the total.

MLB Pick: Over 6.5 (-105) at 5Dimes

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