Two pitchers carrying some of the worst metrics in the majors meet up in Boston. It's a recipe for a blow-up and our MLB handicapper looks to profit from it.
2017 MLB Record, 118-99-7, +9.12 Units, 3.74% ROI
Two pitchers with major red flags start on Friday night in Boston, with Alex Meyer of the Angels taking the mound against Rick Porcello of the Red Sox. With both pitchers not being trustworthy in my eyes, I will pass on the moneyline currently being offered with the Red Sox at -159 at Pinnacle. However, the total does intrigue me and sits at 10.5 across the board as I write this late Thursday afternoon.
Alex Meyer walks batters like Forrest Gump runs. His walk rate of 5.87 BB/9 is the highest amongst MLB pitchers who have more than 40 innings pitched on the year. Yet somehow, some way, Meyer has put up a 3.74 FIP. The answer of that of course is that Meyer throws gas at 96 mph and has a nasty curve to strike out batters at a 10.76 K/9 rate. That has allowed Meyer to put up a .206 batting average against on the season. Meyer is also a different pitcher on the road versus home, although over a pretty small sample size. His road FIP is 4.63 and he walks an amazingly bad 17% of batters. On the road Meyers averages almost a walk per inning. I don’t know about you, but in Fenway that doesn’t sound good. Eventually those walks will end up scoring in bunches.
Rick Porcello starts for the Red Sox, and he has gotten hit around bad lately. Porcello is 3-9 on the season after putting up 22 wins last year. He’s gotten a little unlucky with his .366 BABIP, but his career BABIP is .310 so it always runs a little high. Porcello’s strike rates have come down 50% since April, and after starting at 9.49 K/9 that month are sitting at a 6.29 K/9 for June. He also allowed a .327 BAA in May and .336 BAA in June, so the contact issues have been with him for a while now. Porcello batted ball profiles also show the terrible trend, and his 43.1% hard hit rate is the worst for starters in the MLB.
Porcello also struggles at home where he allows a .314 batting average and .510 slugging. Unfortunately for him, that is where this game will be played. He’s allowed 17 earned runs in his last three starts and somehow he is favored on the moneyline.
If Meyer’s didn’t have red flags of his own I’d be willing to pick the Angels side, even without Mike Trout. As it is, we have two pitchers that can blow up at any moment and I will take the Over of 10.5 at Pinnacle as one of my Friday MLB Picks.Free MLB Pick: Over 10.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle