We have a great matchup between the San Francisco Giants and the Pittsburgh Pirates. This game has ramifications on the wild card as right now it seems to be just a three-team race between the Pirates, Cubs and Giants.
Giants vs. Pirates Odds
This game opened by oddsmakers at 7.5 and then went up to 8. I think that line is set now at just about where it is supposed to be, but I anticipate seeing a lot of runs today. There are still couple places you can get over the total of 8 at some low juice, right now at Pinnacle you can get over the total at +100 MLB odds.
San Francisco Giants
Jake Peavy gets the start for the Giants and comes in with a 4.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 41 strikeouts, and a 3-5 record. The 13-year veteran has struggled with some injuries these last few years but seems to have bounced back some. In his last eight starts since coming back from injury this year he has been hot and cold but has consistently given up runs on the road. In his last three road starts he has given up seven earned runs in 17 innings off of 17 hits, which is not bad. He is coming off a pretty rough outing against the Washington Nationals, where he gave up five earned runs off of nine hits in just five innings in San Francisco. Today, he is facing a tough home hitting team and Pittsburgh and I look for him to get knocked around for more than a few runs.
At the plate the Giants rank 10th in runs scored per game at 4.36, sixth in OPS at .739, and second in batting average hitting .270 as a team. The key aspect of the Giants on the offensive side is that they are arguably the best road hitting team in baseball. All of their important offensive statistics go up on the road and they lead the league in team batting average hitting .270 on away games. They did not hit very well in St. Louis overall and I look for them to bounce back this series.
Charlie Morton gets the start for Pittsburgh with a 4.36 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 63 strikeouts, and a 7-4 record. At home this year overall he has been a nice surprise with a 3.25 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Still, in his last four home starts he has been hot and cold giving up five earned runs total against the Padres and Indians, but also surrendering nine earned runs total against the Braves and Dodgers while also allowing 20 hits. I look for more of the latter type of game against the Giants who are due to break out for a few runs.
Pittsburgh ranks 12th in runs scored per game at 4.28, 13th in OPS at .717, and eighth in team batting average hitting .260 as a team. Whether they are on the road or at home their average runs per game stays about the same, but their other key offensive statistics go up like OPS, team batting average, and home runs per game. They are a good home hitting team and should have a lot of quality at-bats against Peavy.
This a great time of year when we get two teams like this making a push towards the playoffs matching up. Although starting today are two guys with almost 20 years of major league experience between them I look for the offenses to shine today and get well over the total, look for a big final of around 6-4. I'm going to back over the total today with Jake Peavy going for the Giants and Charlie Morton on the mound for the Pirates.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (+100) at 5Dimes