Heavy Vig Makes Run Total Odds More Attractive for Brewers vs. Cardinals MLB Picks

David Lawrence

Monday, June 1, 2015 12:02 PM GMT

The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals are at two opposite ends of the spectrum right now and that’s why you’ll have to lay a big number on the betting MLB lines if you like the Cards. 

The Milwaukee Brewers Can Win Because…
Mike Fiers will be on the mound. It’s pretty clear that in this matchup, if you’re looking for reasons to take the Brewers, you’re grasping for straws. Most signs, especially the steep MLB odds, point to a Cardinals win. However, Fiers is on the mound for the Brew Crew and he typically gives his team a chance to win. They’ve been awful in terms of run support as they’ve given him just 12 runs in his last five starts but he’s allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his last four starts. And he pitches relatively well against St. Louis as he’s 2-2 with a 1.78 ERA against them in six career starts. It might help the Brewers cause if Matt Holliday is again scratched on Monday after missing Sunday’s affair with the flu. Those are a couple of reasons to consider the Brewers in this spot.

 

The St. Louis Cardinals Can Win Because…
They’re on a roll right now. They’ve won six of their last seven games and that includes winning two of three from the Los Angeles Dodgers. Beyond that, they’re at home in this matchup and are facing a Milwaukee Brewers team that is quite lousy. The Brewers did get a 7-6 win on Sunday but it took them 17 innings to beat the sub-.500 Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cards are the top team in the Majors while the Brewers are the worst. The Brewers are batting a league-worst .228 and are near the bottom of the league while scoring just 3.8 runs per game. Laying -160 to -180 with St. Louis on the betting lines might actually be considered good value in a spot like this.

The Cards have won 13 of the last 19 meetings between the teams including two of three in each of the two previous series this season. The Cards are also 20-6 at home while the Brewers are 8-14 on the road. It’s pretty clear that they’re the better pick in this spot.

 

Outlook
The Cards will probably win this game but I don’t want to lay a bunch of juice with them. Under is the better MLB pick in my eyes for a couple of reasons. For starters, the Brewers don’t score much as mentioned above. They are even worse against lefties as they’ve totaled just 40 runs (in 42 games) vs lefties this season while batting a league-worst .199 against them.

We’re faced with a total of 7.5 but the Cardinals have gone over that number just once in their last 10 outings. And these teams have squared off six times this season and the average combined score between the teams has been 6.5 runs. If we can get a halfway decent start out of Fiers, we should see an under.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 at Bovada