Heavy Money on 'Over' in Angels-Astros Game 1 MLB Picks: To Fade or Shade Public Betting Flows?

Ross Benjamin

Friday, April 17, 2015 12:49 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 17, 2015 12:49 PM UTC

As part of our daily search for the betting edge, this handicapper inspects the opening game of the AL West series between the LA Angels of Anaheim and the Houston Astros.

AL West Rivals open Series in Houston
The Houston Astros will play host to the Los Angeles Angels on Friday at 8:10 PM ET. According to the MLB Odds, the Angels are a -115 money line favorite, and the posted total is 9.0. This will be the first meeting of the season between these AL West rivals. The Angels went 12-7 versus the Astros is 2014.

Add More Profit with MLB Picks on Rangers +143 vs. Mariners in Game 1

Angels Update
The Los Angeles Angels are coming off a 10-2 win at Texas on Wednesday in their previous game. The win improved the Angels record to 4-5 on the season. The Angels haven’t gone under the total in any of their previous five, and those games averaged a combined 10.4 runs per game.

Jered Weaver will get the start for the Angels on Friday. The veteran right-handed hurler has been extremely shaky in his first two starts of the season, going 0-2 with a large 8.71 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, and allowed three home runs in 10 1/3 innings pitched. Weaver made two starts at Houston in 2014 and was hardly impressive. He posted a lofty 5.40 ERA in those outings, and allowed five home runs in 11 2/3 innings of work. The Angeles bullpen has performed very well in their first nine games, posting a combined 2.60 ERA, and a 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 27 2/3 innings.


Astros Report
The Houston Astros are coming off a 6-1 home win over Oakland on Wednesday, and it upped their record to 4-5 in 2015. The Astros used some timely hitting to score six runs on just eight hits, and left just two men on base. Unfortunately for Houston fans, the Astros have gone a pathetic 3-20 during the last two seasons following a game in which they left three or less men on base. The Astros bats have been silent for the most part in six home games, evidenced by a paltry team batting average of .164. They’ve seen seven of their first nine games this season go under the total, and that includes five of six played at home.

Houston will turn to the well traveled Roberto Hernandez on the mound for tonight’s game. Hernandez wasn’t sharp in his 2015 debut. Although he allowed just one earned run in 4 2/3 innings pitched, Hernandez also allowed five hits and four walks in that outing. One aspect of the Astros game that’s been extremely good has been the performance of their bullpen. Houston relievers have posted a collective 1.59 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 33.0 innings.


Final Analysis
Neither one of these teams is hitting well enough right now to expose either of today’s starting pitchers flaws. Early money wagered by the general public pertaining to the total in this contest, overwhelmingly has come on the over. I’ll be disagreeing with that betting trend for one of my MLB Picks on Friday.

MLB Picks: Play on the Angels and Astros to go under the total of 9.0 at Pinnacle

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