Heavy-Hitting Offenses Will Make Astros & Rangers Produce High-Scoring Game

Charles Stark

Tuesday, August 4, 2015 11:20 PM GMT

Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2015 11:20 PM GMT

Today we have a total that I think fits perfectly for my opposite play of the day. When we break down the numbers it looks like the oddsmakers are on top of this game, so, although the total seems high, I am backing over the total when the Astros take on the Rangers in Texas.

Odds
The best thing about this total is that you can get it at +100 to -110 MLB odds, and that total is 9.5 in this matchup. It really does seem on the high side considering that the game is not in Colorado, but as we dig into the numbers what we should have is a high-scoring affair. At both Pinnacle and Heritage Sports you can get over the 9.5 at +100, and to me anytime you don't have to pay juice on a game that you like is pretty good value.

 

Pitching Matchup
For the Astros the red-hot Scott Kazmir takes the hill with a 2.10 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 109 strikeouts, and a 2-0 record for Houston. His stellar season is much better than his career numbers of a 3.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 1428 strikeouts, and a 97-84 record over 10 years. What you're getting in him is a good veteran pitcher who can be really dominating at times so the high total surprises me just a little bit. What he is facing though is a really good hitting team in the Rangers that have seen him quite a bit, more on that below.

For the Rangers Nick Martinez gets the start and comes in with a 4.01 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 68 strikeouts and a 6-6 record. His career numbers are not that far off the 4.31 career ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 145 strikeouts, and and 11-18 record in his two-year career. He has really struggled at times this year and he could be in for a long day today against a solid Astros offense. In his last three starts he's allowed 13 earned runs in just 15 innings, and his home numbers are not much better than his overall average with a lower ERA at 3.75 but a higher WHIP at 1.52.

 

Offenses
Offensively the Astros are one of the best hitting teams in baseball. They are ranked fourth in runs scored per game at 4.50, sixth in OPS at .743, but are a bit low in batting average only hitting .247. In their last several games they have been hitting the ball very well and I look for them to continue this momentum today in Texas.

Like the Astros, the Rangers are one of the better hitting teams in major league baseball. They average 4.47 runs per game, which is ranked sixth in the major leagues, an OPS of .727, which is ranked ninth, and a team batting average of .254, which ranks 12th. The Rangers particularly like to hit against the Houston Astros, hitting .280 against them so far this season with an OPS of .804. They have already faced Kazmir a few times this season with little success, but look for them to push across more than a few today against the left-hander like they did the last time he pitched in Texas.

At the end of the day this line does not make a lot of sense and it seems a bit too high at first glance. Kazmir has been really solid against the Rangers so far this season, but this will be the fourth time he has faced them, which should side with the Rangers. Texas has had some success against him in Arlington so they should have a lot of confidence. Look for the Astros to go ahead and do some damage against Martinez early and often. This should be a really fun game with a lot more runs than most people probably expect, so back the over.

MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-110)

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