Head-Scratching Betting Lines for Indians vs. Royals MLB Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, May 6, 2015 2:06 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 6, 2015 2:06 PM UTC

Here's our top-value MLB pick for tonight as the Cleveland Indians continue their 3-game, early week set in Kansas City, after the Royals emerged with a 5-3 victory on Tuesday night.

Cleveland Indians (Carrasco) at KC Royals (Duffy) (-120) 8:10 ET
The Cleveland Indians continue their 3-game, early week set in Kansas City, after the Royals emerged with a 5-3 victory on Tuesday night in a solid bounce back start by Vargas.  Earlier this season, in late April, KC took 2 of 3 from the Tribe in Cleveland, plating 22 runs in the process.  This is an incredible value price for a 17-9 team (playing at home) vs. a 9-16 team (playing on the road), when we have the better of it with the starters, and the bullpen, and at that plate.

After winning just 68 games in 2012, Cleveland made a 24-game improvement to record a 92-70 record in 2013.  They still managed to stay above water in 2014 with an 85-77 mark.  Another winning campaign was projected for the Indians, but results for the YTD have been most disappointing.  Among the worst subsets of a record that is the worst in the American League is the fact they are 2-9 vs. opposing left-handed starters.  Tonight’s starting pitcher, Carrasco, does not figure to be much help in that regard.  In his previous outing against Toronto, Carrasco allowed 4 runs in 6 IP.  As a result, he enters tonight’s action with a record of 3-2 with 4.98 ERA.  Though Cleveland has won his 3 starts in KC, he has a 4.08 ERA from this mound.  He will not be a match on this field for the Royals and their starter tonight.

MLB Odds favorites tonight, Kansas City sends lefthander Duffy to the hill with his YTD log of 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA.  Duffy enters tonight following a positive performance against Detroit, in which he worked 7+ innings, allowing just 1 run in an 8-1 victory vs. Detroit.  Duffy has a strong history against Cleveland with a 1.75 ERA in 4 starts.  The Royals have won all 3 of his home starts this season.  In his last 8 starts from this mound, Duffy has a 2.72 ERA.  The Royals are 69-36 in their last 105 games.  They do it with a small-ball format, featuring the best fundamentals in MLB.  Along with the strong start expected by Duffy tonight, he will be backed by a bullpen with a 1.08 ERA.  The Royals send a lineup to the plate, which has a .293 BA (the best in MLB).

Considering that we have the better starter, the better bullpen and the better hitting, this is a head-scratching line for the team with the 2nd best record in the American League against the team with the worst record in all of baseball.  Lay this value price MLB picks with confidence, knowing you will have the best of it for all 9 innings.

MLB Picks: Take KC Royals at 5Dimes

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