The Mariners continue to swap wins and losses, a trend they haven't been able to break for over a month. Betting line movement indicates the sharps think that trend will continue in Detroit.
I’m ready to start the workweek after an easy win yesterday, as the Mariners decided yet again to flounder a fantastic start by Felix Hernandez against the Yankees. The Mariners are definitely on Fade Watch as the weight of their disappointing season starts to set in. On Monday they visit the Detroit Tigers, who are coming off of a 9-3 loss to Baltimore, which caused them to drop below .500 for the first time since April 2nd. That record is good for 10.5 games back in the AL Central with the hot Kansas City Royals sitting at 55-35. The odds for this game opened with Detroit as hometown favorites on the money line at -115, a line that has moved Seattle’s way since opening to -107 at Pinnacle. The O/U total is currently listed at 9 at multiple books.
This game features two pitchers that have had their ERA’s steadily rise over the last month. Detroit’s Alfredo Simon, whose name sounds like a dish you would serve with steamed broccoli, had an ERA of 2.58 going into a June 20th game at the New York Yankees. He got lit up in that game for 7 ER, and hasn’t given up less than 5 ER in his four starts since then. That stretch has his ERA all the way up to 4.53 on the season, and as he has given up an astounding 33 hits over his last three starts which has his WHIP up to 1.46. Just two starts ago Simon faced the Mariners and won, although it took 12 runs by Detroit to give him the winning decision. Simon has apparently lost touch of his control over the last month, and in the attempt to get it back, has grooved way too many pitches over the heart of the plate. Being a major league pitcher is hard.
Seattle pitcher J.A. Happ’s fall from grace has been less dramatic than Simon’s, but the Mariners have still lost 8 of his last 10 starts. Knowing that he needed to get some work in during the All-Star Break, Happ agreed to a minor league assignment so that the Mariners could call up Jesus Montero for a cup of coffee. That minor league assignment was all the way back to single-A ball! Luckily for Happ, the Mariners held their word and called Happ back up for this start against the Tigers. His problems this year have been pitching on the road. Happ has a stellar 2.66 ERA, a passable 1.31 WHIP, and an “ok maybe he’s getting lucky” .270 BAA in the friendly confines of Safeco Field. On the road he’s awful, posting a 5.59 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and .291 BAA.
The MLB Pick
The public betting action on the money line is going against the MLB odds line movement. My source has the public at 89% of wagers, while the line has reduced from -115 to -107 at Pinnacle. Line moves like this to indicate that there are few wagers on the Seattle side, but they are large. I’m very tempted to take the under here, as the Mariners offense sucks, but Detroit has enough firepower to get it done themselves. Detroit has been in games posting nine runs or more in 9 out of their last 12. In the end Seattle hasn’t won two games in a row in over a month, but they also haven’t lost two games in a row. For this reason I’m tailing the heavy betting sharks on the Seattle side of the money line.
MLB Pick: Mariners -101 at 5Dimes.