Guardians vs. Royals MLB Picks: Believing in Bieber in Kansas City
The Cleveland Guardians hope they are back on track after an extra-innings victory in Kansas City on Monday night. Can they make it two in a row against the Royals? Read on for our Guardians-Royals MLB picks.
The AL Central is up for grabs and the Guardians want to take it. They moved back into first place and broke a five-game losing streak with a 6-5 win on Monday night.
The Royals were rolling with back-to-back wins before Monday night’s defeat. Kansas City is now 55-81 on the season.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Tuesday’s Guardians vs. Royals game (odds via BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Guardians vs. Royals Game Info
Date: Tuesday, Sept. 6, 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: BSGL, BSKC
Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Weather: 83 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 6-mph winds blowing in
Guardians vs. Royals Odds Analysis
The Guardians opened at -190 and you can still find them there at BetRivers while they’ve moved to as high as -205 at FanDuel Sportsbook. In turn, the Royals are +172 at FanDuel after opening at +160.
The total remains at 7.5 after opening there. You can get Over 7.5 +100 (FOXBet) and Under 7.5 -112 (BetRivers).
Guardians vs. Royals Projected Pitchers
Shane Bieber (8-8, 3.11 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) vs. Kris Bubic (2-10, 5.52 ERA, 1.68 WHIP)
Bieber has thrown seven straight quality starts with at least eight strikeouts in five of those outings. However, he’s been the tough-luck loser in the last three despite allowing just five earned runs in 20.1 innings. He has a great chance to get back on track against a weaker Kansas City lineup.
Bubic has been up and down for the Royals. He’s allowed 16 earned runs in his last four starts but did throw a quality start last time out. Still, the Royals have lost four straight Bubic starts and are just 7-15 in his 22 outings this season.
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Guardians vs. Royals Picks
Guardians vs. Royals ML Pick
Guardians (-190) ★★★★★
The Guardians are juicy favorites but they’ve struggled to cover the run line too many times for me to make that the play tonight. Instead, I’m throwing my full confidence behind Cleveland on the moneyline, even at a nearly -200 price.
The difference in tonight’s starters are rather obvious. Bubic’s ERA is nearly 2.5 runs higher than Bieber’s and their respective records show that.
On top of that, Cleveland is 32-22 against teams with a losing record (15-9 in the second half) while Kansas City is 22-43 against teams with a winning record (12-20 in the second half).
Finally, the Guardians are only five games over .500 (69-64) on the season but they’re six games over .500 (23-17) against left-handed starters.
Guardians vs. Royals O/U Pick
Under 7.5 (-112) ★★★
Neither of these teams have been scoring a lot of runs recently. They combined for 11 last night, but three of those were scored in extra innings. Cleveland was held to four runs in their previous five games and the Under is 7-3 in their last 10 games.
Bieber has pitched to three straight unders, bringing his total to 14 unders and 11 overs this season. He should be able to limit the Royals, and Bubic has shown enough that the Guardians shouldn’t completely tee off on him.
Guardians vs. Royals Prop Pick
Bieber Over 5.5 strikeouts (-159)
Bieber’s strikeout line is all over the place. Over 5.5 strikeouts is -165 on BetMGM and -185 on DraftKings. Meanwhile, it’s up to Over 7.5 strikeouts (-128) at FanDuel with over 5.5 at -530. Now, that could be off, but it’s worth betting at -159 on that value alone.
Bieber has 20 strikeouts in his last two starts: nine against Seattle, 11 against Baltimore. He only struck out four batters in the start before that, but struck out 6+ (including 8 thrice) in his previous four games.
The Guardians' right-hander has hit the six-strikeout mark in 17 of 25 games this season, including in 8 of his last 10. He should be able to get there again tonight.
Where to Bet on Guardians-Royals Picks
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Guardians-Royals picks made on 9/6/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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