Greinke Worth More Than Just a Single Wager Tonight in Houston

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, August 22, 2015 2:14 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 22, 2015 2:14 PM UTC

After calling a fine offensive performance by a NL pitcher last night in a winning Friday Night Parlay, our MLB handicapper decides to double dip on the parlay train for his Saturday MLB Pick!

The Dodgers look to get a hit tonight as they lick their wounds from getting no-hit last night by Houston’s, uh… ‘ace’, Mike Fiers. It was an impressive performance by Fiers, if not only because he had never even pitched into the 9th inning before in his career. A performance like this one also has ramifications for the next few games as the Houston bullpen effectively had an extra day off. Late in the season this is very important for pitching staffs as the innings pitched build up.

The Dodgers may only need a few hits to be competitive with the way that Zack Greinke has pitched this year. His accumulated statistics to date reflect how absolutely dominant he has been, as he carries a 1.58 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 150/29 K/BB rate, and .193 BAA coming into this game. Unless something drastic occurs, Greinke will be the NL Cy Young winner this year. These kind of statistics lead to an exercise of finding a needle in a haystack for anything at all that would lead you to not back that pitcher. In that, I guess you could say that Jose Altuve and Luis Valbuena of the Astros have had some success against Greinke. However, Greinke has yet to give up a single run this year while pitching indoors. The only real negatives you can point to is that Greinke’s two clunkers this year, where he gave up 5 ER apiece, came on the road.

Houston’s Scott Kazmir will attempt to follow up on Mike Fiers impressive pitching performance with one of his own. Kazmir has had somewhat of a rebound season and finds himself with a 2.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 123/46 K/BB rate, and .237 BAA. In his last time out Kazmir got knocked around for 6 ER against Tampa Bay, and continued a streak of three games in which he gave up a HR - Kazmir hadn’t given up a HR in the seven games before. He also hasn’t made it out of the sixth inning in each of his last games, but will have a rested bullpen to take over for him tonight should he fail to pitch deep in the game again.

With Greinke on the mound, the Dodgers are favored on the road in this game at -120 on the money line at Bovada. The Astros get the extra run and a half on the run line and can be found at -152 at Pinnacle as the home dog. With both pitchers sporting sparkly ERA’s the MLB odds total is listed at just 7. Any line movement we have had on the money line and run line has favored Houston, and the total has shifted towards the Over from -103 to -117 at Pinnacle.

The MLB Pick: Zack Greinke is 8-0 in his last ten starts, and in the two starts that he earned a no decision he gave up no more than 2 ER. That’s a pretty strong trend, but one that should be expected if you are carrying a 13-2 record. Also, in each of those ten games a posted total of 7 would be 7-2-1 in favor of the under. It looks like I’ll have to fade one my our fellow SBR handicappers today, as I love the fact that I can get this total on a whole number at +106 at Pinnacle. I’m backing both trends tonight, and going to follow up my winning Friday Night Parlay pick with a Saturday Parlay, taking the Dodgers at -120 and the under at +105 at 5Dimes for my Saturday MLB Pick.

Thinking the 'Over' might hit? You are not alone. Get another take on this matchup right here.

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