Greinke Pitching at Home Makes Dodgers a Pricey Pick vs. Reds

Darin Zank

Sunday, August 16, 2015 12:59 PM GMT

We are not surprised to see the LA Dodgers with Zack Greinke as monster favorites against the Cincy Reds. Fortunately, there's more than one way to bet a baseball game.

Reds-Dodgers Sunday Odds
As of early Sunday AM the best line we could find on Los Angeles with Zack Greinke was the -225 offered at Pinnacle, while Cincinnati and rookie righty Anthony DeSclafani were getting +215 at 5Dimes. And every book on the MLB odds board listed a total on today's game of seven runs, with most of the grease leaning toward the OVER.

 

The Situation
Los Angeles has taken two of the first three games of this four-game series, following Saturday's 8-3 victory. So the Dodgers have won four of their last five games, while Cincinnati has lost eight of its last 11 contests.

At 66-51 Los Angeles leads the NL West by 2.5 games over second-place San Francisco, and sits three games ahead of the Mets in the battle for the No. 2 seed in the upcoming National League playoffs.

Meanwhile, at 51-64 Cincinnati is just playing out the string on this season.

 

Sunday's Pitching Matchup
Greinke (12-2, 1.65), by our strict standards, is 19-for-23 on quality starts this season, and 11 for his last 12. Tuesday he tossed six scoreless innings against Washington, which was a decent bounce-back effort, after giving up six runs in six innings against Philly five days previous. But prior to that Greinke fashioned 10 quality outings in a row. For the season Greinke has allowed just 109 hits through 158 innings, walked 28 and struck out 142.

LA is 16-7 in Greinke's starts, with the UNDERS going 12-11.

Greinke started twice against Cincinnati last season, allowing five runs and 12 hits through 13 2/3 innings, with one walk and 14 strikeouts; the Dodgers split those two games.

DeSclafani (7-7, 3.75) is 11-for-22 on quality starts, and three for his last four. Last Sunday he gave up three runs and 10 hits through six innings against Arizona, but over his last four starts he's held foes to eight runs through 26 innings. On the season DeSclafani has allowed 132 hits through 132 innings, walked 47 and struck out 98.

The Reds, a team that's 13 games under .500 overall, are 11-11 in DeSclafani's starts, with the totals tilting UNDER 12-7.

In his only previous career start against Los Angeles, back in May of last season, in his ML debut with Miami, DeSclafani allowed two runs and seven hits through six innings, walked one and whiffed seven, in a 13-3 Marlins victory.

 

Sunday's Batting Splits
Cincinnati ranks 18th in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .250 team batting average, and 16th with a .314 team on-base percentage.

LA, meanwhile, ranks 12th against righties with a .255 team average but first with a .330 team OBP.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Dodger Stadium this season are a lopsided 37-22 on the OVERS, even though they're averaging a very normal 7.9 runs per. Apparently oddsmakers have been posting some low totals on Dodgers home games.

 

Reds-Dodgers Sunday Free Picks
LA is an obvious choice here, throwing an ace, trying to hold on to a division lead, but today's price is a bit crazy. So we'll play the Dodgers on the run line. Also, with a little help from these bullpens, neither of which we hold in too high regard, we could see this game playing OVER.

MLB Picks: LA +105 on the run line at Pinnacle and OVER seven runs (-110) at Heritage