Greinke & Diamondbacks Heavy Chalk Hosting Padres

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, June 7, 2017 12:46 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jun. 7, 2017 12:46 PM UTC

Padres workhorse Luis Perdomo squares off against Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke in Arizona on Wednesday night (9:40 ET) in the desert. Greinke’s win rate as a home favorite is eye opening. Check it out here.

San Diego Padres (23-36)

What goes up must come down. The Padres, whoh own the second worst record in MLB, have dropped three straight games after sweeping the Cubs and taking a game from division leaders the Nationals and Rockies last week. The bats went silent quickly. San Diego has scored four runs on 12 hits in the last 28 innings. A matchup against Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke on Wednesday isn’t the best option to jumpstart the lineup.

Luis Perdomo is scheduled to command the hill for Padres manager Andy Green. The right-hander is blossoming into a promising starter after signing on as a Rule 5 draftee to serve as a reliever. Perdomo is just 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA through nine starts. Bad luck has struck several times, including his last outing vs. the Cubs in which he earned a no-decision despite holding the World Series champions to one run on three hits over seven innings. A 3.77 FIP suggests poor defense is part of the problem.

Since debuting in the rotation in May 2016, Perdomo has started 29 games for the Padres, more than any other on the staff has. Clayton Richard and Christian Friedrich, in fact, are the only others to work 20 games or more. The team is roughly a .500 ballclub behind Perdomo, going 14-15 SU overall. On the road, the Padres are 7-8 SU, returning close to 25 percent profit to bettors at +175 average odds. The staff yields 4.4 runs per game in this spot.

Perdomo is 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA in four career starts against the Diamondbacks. His K/BB ratio is outstanding at 14:1, but he has yielded 30 hits in 23 frames overall. Arizona’s current roster is batting .312 as a group with eight of the hits for extra bases: 3 doubles, a triple and 4 home runs.


Arizona Diamondbacks (35-25)

The D-backs have won seven of their last eight vs. San Diego at Chase Field. The lineup is mashing Padres pitching, scoring 6.75 runs on 9.62 hits per game. Arizona is rattling the rotation, particularly. Only one Padres pitcher has put in a quality start in this span, Paul Clemens in the 2016 regular-season finale.

Ace Greinke takes the pill for skipper Torey Lovullo. The former Cy Young recipient is 7-3 with a 3.06 ERA through 12 starts. Lifetime, Greinke is 9-2 with a 1.93 ERA in 18 outings against the Padres. San Diego’s current roster is hitting .222 (34-of-153) as a group with just three long balls against him.

Grienke has pitched for five different clubs in his 13-year career. One thing remains constant at each stop: teams win with the right-hander as home chalk. Lifetime, clubs are 101-38 SU when favored in the betting market on their own turf, returning 19 percent profit at -166 average odds. Most of this success came at Milwaukee and with the Dodgers. Arizona is 10-6 SU overall, covering the run line in just four of the wins.


Final Analysis

In 18 career starts against the Padres, Greinke has never allowed more than 2 runs through the first 5 innings. Perdomo, meanwhile, has allowed 3 runs or more nine times in 15 career road appearances. Take the D-backs through the first five for your MLB pick.

Free MLB Pick: D-Back 1st 5Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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