The value is on the Padres versus Pirates matchup today. What looks to me like a better matchup than odds makers have set up should be to our advantage as the Padres look to upset Pittsburgh.
MLB odds makers have opened up with Pittsburgh Pirates the favorite in this game which makes a lot of sense considering they are at home with a decent pitcher on the mound. The best odds I have seen so far is at Sports Betting sports book who have the Padres at +125, that is good value for me on a game I really feel like the Padres can win.
So far this season it seems like it's been a swing and a miss for me with Andrew Cashner of the San Diego Padres. He simply has not been as dominant as he has been the last couple of years and comes in with a 4.06 ERA and 1.39 WHIP, but he has been showing signs of his old self. His last bad outing was at Oakland in mid-June where he allowed five runs in five innings, but in his other four out of his last five games outside of Oakland he has pitched really well allowing eight runs in 24 innings. In his last time out he arguably had his best performance of the season in St. Louis allowing one run on three hits in six innings, so perhaps this is a sign of him starting to turn things around. For the Pirates Charlie Morton takes the mound with a 4.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. In two out of his last five starts he was outstanding allowing zero earned runs over 14 innings, but in his three other starts after those two, his last three, he has been less than stellar. Since his last start on June 21st he has allowed 16 runs in just 13 innings pitched in three games, highlighted by a really bad outing in Washington. His overall numbers are better at home, but in my opinion Cashner is the better pitcher in this matchup.
At the Plate
Statistically these two teams matchup on the offensive end rather well, in runs scored per game the Pirates are 17th in the league and the Padres 21st. There is a bigger disparity in batting average with Pittsburgh ranked 12th hitting .256 compared to the Padres who are rank 28th hitting just .239. In on base plus slugging percentage again Pittsburgh holds the advantage ranked 19th in the league compared to San Diego at 27th. Up and down the stat sheet this is kind of the theme we get and neither the Pirates nor the Padres are lighting up the scoreboards this season, they are middle tiered to lower ranked in the major leagues in most offensive categories. Something away from home to be said about the Padres though, in which I've mentioned before, is all of their major offensive stats go up while on the road.
It makes a lot of sense that Pittsburgh is the favorite in this spot simply because they are at home and a bit better of an offensive team. But with Cashner pitching as well as he has recently, look for him to shut down the subpar offense of the Pirates, and consequently for San Diego to do just enough against Morton the push some runs across the plate. There is simply too much value here on the Padres at +120 or better so I will back them in this spot as my upset play of the day.
MLB Pick: Padres +120