Great Underdog Value In Padres vs. Dodgers

Friday, July 8, 2016 3:44 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 8, 2016 3:44 PM UTC

The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the best records in the National League, but they're losers on the MLB odds board, while the 38-48 San Diego Padres are winners.

All the Los Angeles Dodgers needed was a little patience. They were two games below .500 on May 21; since then, the Dodgers have looked more like their usual selves at 27-17. But they're still 3.62 betting units in the red at 48-40, and a fresh spate of injuries has Los Angeles trending in the wrong direction again. The Dodgers have lost three straight games; on Thursday, they got shelled 6-0 by the San Diego Padres (+146 away) in the opener of their four-game series at Chavez Ravine.

The MLB Odds for Friday's rematch (10:10 p.m. ET) have L.A. carrying even more chalk. At press time, the Dodgers are priced as –185 favorites with veteran lefty Scott Kazmir taking the mound. For the Padres, it's sixth-year northpaw Andrew Cashner, who missed nearly a month with a strained neck. Must be that king-size beard.

Jocularity, Jocularity
The high-profile Dodgers have been coated in chalk all year, and San Diego (38-48, +0.95 units) is in the black despite trailing L.A. by nine games in the NL West. Our crack staff here at the home office figure Friday's game will be a good spot to load up on the underdogs. FiveThirtyEight projects the home team to win 62 percent of the time; 62 percent works out to –163 on our SBR Betting Odds Converter, so there does indeed appear to be a healthy slice of betting value with San Diego in this matchup.

Those projections won't have fully taken L.A.'s injuries into account, either. OF Joc Pederson (.804 OPS) was put on the 15-day DL last week with a sprained right AC joint, depriving the Dodgers of their second-best hitter. OF Andre Ethier (.852 OPS last year) isn't expected to make his 2016 debut until early August, and OF Enrique Hernandez (.626 OPS) is out indefinitely with sore ribs, so if you're an outfielder looking for work, contact the Dodgers front office.

Fantasy Corner
If all you need is some help for your fantasy team, this might be the right time to buy low on Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal (.672 OPS). This hasn't been a good year at the plate for Grandal, but he has three home runs in his last six games, and he's 3-for-7 lifetime against Cashner with a double and a walk. Only 10.6 percent of ESPN-based clubs have Grandal in the lineup at press time.

As a team, the Dodgers have a .824 OPS against Cashner (4.72 FIP), but current San Diego hitters respond with a collective .815 OPS versus Kazmir (4.33 FIP). The Padres might have something special in Cashner; at the very least, he's ahead 1.25 units this year on a team record of 6-6, while Kazmir has the Dodgers up just 0.32 units at 9-8. We'll take the underdogs and the betting value for our MLB Picks, and may the sphere be with you.

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Free MLB Pick: Padres +185
Best Line Offered: at YouWager
Record: 16-13 ML, 5-3-1 Totals (+5.54 units)


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