Great Underdog Betting Value When Bumgarner Meets The Booty-O's​ For Your MLB Pick

Jason Lake

Saturday, August 13, 2016 3:14 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 13, 2016 3:14 PM UTC

The baseball odds have caught up to both the Baltimore Orioles and the San Francisco Giants. Which team should we fade when they collide Saturday night in San Fran?

Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants
Quick, which team are you hitting the “sell” button on first: the Baltimore Orioles, or the San Francisco Giants? The Orioles (65-50, +12.79 units) are 7-10 in their last 17 games. The Giants (65-50, +2.53 units) are 8-16 in their last 24. I guess that answers our question. The Giants even lost 5-2 to Baltimore Friday night as +108 home dogs.

Here comes the cavalry. Madison Bumgarner (3.18 FIP) takes the mound for San Francisco Saturday night in Game 2 of this three-game set – first pitch is at 9:05 p.m. Eastern on the MLB Network if you want to follow along at home. Kevin Gausman (4.38 FIP) gets the nod for Baltimore. It looks like a mismatch, and the Giants have priced accordingly at –170 on the MLB odds board.


I See Red
Did I say “priced accordingly”? Let me walk that one back a bit. Bumgarner is a hell of a pitcher, but his walks (2.20 per nine innings) and home runs (0.99/9) are up this year, and he's been fortunate to limit opponents to a .259 BABIP. Even that good fortune hasn't stopped Bumgarner from dropping 5.67 betting units on a team record of 13-11. That includes five straight losses, with the Giants scoring two runs or fewer in four of those contests.

Gausman has done even worse in the betting department. The Orioles are 8-12 behind the third-year northpaw for a loss of 6.13 units. They're only giving him 3.35 runs of support per game, for crying out loud. That's not very nice. It might not even be sustainable; Baltimore usually scores 4.7 runs per game. Looks like there might be some upside here, and FiveThirtyEight “only” has the Giants winning this game 58 percent of the time. That's –138 on our sleek SBR Betting Odds Converter. Ask for it by name.


Fantasy Corner
This is an interleague matchup, so neither team has accumulated enough at-bats against these two pitchers to worry about. But you might want to give Giants OF and lead-off hitter Denard Span (.687 OPS, 12 stolen bases) a chance to pull himself together for the playoff drive. Span is only owned in 36.6 percent of ESPN leagues at press time, but he's 3-for-6 against Gausman with a pair of doubles, and he's got a more respectable .743 OPS since the All-Star break.

This looks like a simple enough MLB pick from where we're standing. The Giants will probably win, but the investment isn't worth it. Our consensus reports at press time show 55 percent of early bettors on Baltimore, too. Let the pigeons loose~! We'll go with a fair-to-middling bet size on the Orioles, and as always, may the sphere be with you.

Free MLB Pick: Orioles +155
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
Record: 20-19 ML, 7-4-1 Totals (+5.11 units)

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