Great Plays on the Great Lakes for our MLB Picks Tuesday

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Mark Lathrop

Tuesday, August 8, 2017 12:54 PM GMT

Back from IFBC 2017, Mark Lathrop is ready to rock the last weeks of the MLB season into the playoffs. Read on as he finds excellent value in the Tuesday MLB betting card for his MLB Picks of the Day.

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Our MLB handicapper, Mark Lathrop, spots a line that is way out of whack in Cleveland. Even if the Indians win, the game should be close with these starters on the mound.

Colorado Rockies vs Cleveland Indians

Corey Kluber has the highest strikeout in his career right now, historical numbers really, yet also has his highest hard-hit% and HR/FB% of his career. It’s an odd dichotomy of numbers to look at for sure, and definitely not a pitcher you want to be fading in any fashion straight up. However, the -229 moneyline put out against the 64-48 Colorado Rockies with their most talented pitcher on the mound is a bit ridiculous, even with Kluber on the mound. Consider that Kluber has a 90% left on base percentage over the 2nd half of the season. Nobody is that good over the long term. 

Kluber will go up against the Rockies’ German Marquez, who is just 22-years old and has about as many pros as you can list. His overall numbers are good, but his road numbers are excellent. On the season over 46.2 innings pitched on the road, Marquez has put up a 3.08 FIP, 25.3% strikeout rate, and a fantastic 0.58 HR/9 rate. Be assured that Colorado will be a live dog, and I will play them on the +1.5 runline at +105 at Heritage as one of my Tuesday MLB Picks of the Day.

MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies ML, Best Line Offered is at BetOnline

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A pitcher with great name recognition has a totals line deflated a bit in Chicago, as Houston faces one of the worst starting pitchers getting regular innings on the year.

Houston Astros vs Chicago Whitesox 

Dallas Keuchel has not pitched well since returning from the DL, and it may be small sample size theater, but he hasn’t been sharp. Since coming back from the DL, Keuchel is allowing a .351 batting average, has put up a 7.02 FIP, 2.25 WHIP, and has a 5/5 K/BB rate. He basically came off of the DL and put up his two worst starts of the year.

Keuchel will face Derek Holland of the White Sox, and according to the xFIP screener used by @SBRBreadman on Twitter, is one of the worst pitchers on the mound on Tuesday. Holland has a 6.18 FIP on the year over 112.2 innings pitched correlating to a 5-11 win-loss record. His issue is with right-handers, where Holland is allowing a .308 batting average allowed against righties on the year thus far. The Astros have a right-handed heavy lineup and should be able to take advantage of this. There is also the possibility that George Springer could be back in the lineup for Houston, which just makes matters worse. With Keuchel being a question mark and Holland assured to give up runs the angle here is to take the Over and fade both as one of my MLB Tuesday free picks.

MLB Pick: Over 9.5Best Line Offered is at BetOnline

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2017 MLB Record, 159-142-8, +5.44 Units