Great Betting Value on the 'Over' as Rangers and Orioles Have Respectable Offenses

Charles Stark

Wednesday, July 1, 2015 1:10 AM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 1, 2015 1:10 AM UTC

I'm looking for quite a few runs today when the Texas Rangers take on the Baltimore Orioles in Baltimore. I will be backing over the total on this game and I suggest you do the same with your MLB picks because both these teams are solid on the offensive end, and neither of these pitchers should hold the opposing team down.

Betting Odds
In this American League matchup, MLB odds makers have set the total at 8.5. That is a pretty standard number across the board at every major sportsbook. The best odds I have seen with the lowest juice are at Pinnacle at -105 for that total. If this line moves at all I believe it will go up and possibly reach 9 before first pitch, but at 8.5 or 9 I still like the over here.


Nick Martinez gets the call for the Texas Rangers and he comes in with a 3.39 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. This is his first full year of major league experience and so far has shown some positive signs. Still, other times this season he's got lit up. In his most recent outing he gave up eight earned runs off a nine hits in six innings pitched against the Blue Jays. He is what I like to call a hot and cold pitcher, sometimes he has pitched great this season, like the zero earned runs and one hit in six innings pitched against the Oakland A's, and then other times not great like against the White Sox, when he allowed seven earned runs off of nine hits in only three innings pitched.

On the mound for the Orioles is Wei-Yin Chen, who comes in with a 2.90 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. The three-year veteran has been sharp so far this year, and he has only allowed four earned runs in his last 19 innings pitched. Still, he has only pitched scoreless baseball one time this year and that was against the Phillies, which kind of doesn't count. Otherwise, he will allow a few runs here and there and he does have a career ERA of 3.72, look for Texas to get at least a few off of him today.

Must Read: MLB Picks: Updated World Series Futures Odds

At the Plate
Baltimore ranks third in the league in runs scored per game and the Rangers are at a respectable 11th. That is kind of the theme we see with these two teams with Baltimore being ranked in the top 10 in most offensive categories and the Texas Rangers being ranked in the middle tier. Another example is Baltimore being ranked sixth in on base plus slugging percentage with the Rangers ranked 15th. But recently the Rangers have had a lot more quality at-bats and their on base plus slugging percentage in their last three games has gone up from .717 to .857 (ranked fourth) so they should be confident today against Chen.

Both Martinez and Chen are having decent seasons so far but with the number at 8.5 or 9 I like these two respectable offenses to do some damage against both of them today. Don't be surprised if Texas keeps up with the Orioles as far as runs go in this contest. It should be a fun one to watch, back the over with confidence.

MLB Pick: 'Over' 8.5 at 5Dimes

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