Grab The Fresher Team As Your MLB Pick To Boost Your Bankroll

Jason Lake

Friday, June 10, 2016 11:28 AM UTC

Friday, Jun. 10, 2016 11:28 AM UTC

The Chicago White Sox have dropped three straight games with Chris Sale on the mound. They're –180 home faves on Friday's MLB odds board versus the Kansas City Royals.

Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Eventually, we're going to get one of these underdogs to the pay window. The Chicago White Sox (+145 at home) didn't get the job done for us this past Tuesday; James Shields got rocked for seven runs in just two innings of work, dropping an 11-4 decision to the Washington Nationals in his Chicago debut. Fiddlesticks. That's six straight underdogs who should have been sent to a farm upstate, instead of going into our MLB picks.

The White Sox won't do it to us again Friday night (8:10 p.m. ET). That's because they're –180 home faves on the MLB odds board versus the Kansas City Royals. The immaculate Chris Sale is pitching for the Pale Hose, and he's 4.36 betting units in the black this year on a team record of 9-3. Nice. Should we get us some of that?

Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy
Hold up, pardner. The White Sox (30-30, –0.96 units) have dropped each of Sale's last three starts, two of which were less than immaculate. And the Royals (30-29, +1.01 units) respond Friday with Ian Kennedy (4.45 FIP), who's up 2.95 units on a record of 7-4. I get the impression the Sox are overvalued in this situation.

Let's see what the scientists have to say. FiveThirtyEight projects Chicago to win this game 59 percent of the time, which translates to –144 on our souped-up SBR Betting Odds Converter. Indeed. The Sox have lost 18 of their last 24 games, while Kansas City is on a seven-game losing skid, so neither team is giving us much confidence. But there should be some value on the Royals. Or we could go with the OVER on the total of 7.5 runs. These same two teams met May 29 with Sale (3.10 FIP) facing Edinson Volquez; Chicago won that one 5-4 (OVER 7.5, +112). Alas, the OVER is a bit less tasty this time at –115.


Fantasy Corner
Interestingly enough, current Royals have a combined .726 OPS versus Sale, while the Sox are just .636 OPS against Kennedy. Maybe you can scoop up DH Kendrys Morales (.604 OPS) for your fantasy team. He's having some tough times at the plate, but check out that .230 BABIP. That's due for some positive regression. Morales is 3-for-11 lifetime against Sale with a .970 OPS, and he's only owned in 24.0 percent of ESPN leagues at press time.

We've taken a straw poll here at the home office, and we're sticking with the underdog Royals as a value pick. The White Sox are No. 25 overall in hitting at 3.6 WAR, four spots below Kansas City at 5.7 WAR. They also used closer David Robertson in Thursday's 3-1 win over Washington (–124 away). Plus, the Royals were idle on Thursday, so they'll be the fresher team. We'll buy that for a dollar.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2994059, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free MLB Pick: Kansas City Royals +155
Best Line Offered: at Intertops
Record: 10-12 ML, 3-0 Totals (+1.29 units)

comment here