Grab Cardinals -1.5 St. Louis And Take Advantage Of Brewers' Losing Streak At Home

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, May 31, 2016 3:07 PM GMT

The St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers continue their early-week set after St. Louis blanked Milwaukee 6-0 on Monday. Let's study the MLB odds and determine a pick today.

St. Louis Cardinals (Leake) (-1 ½ R/+110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (Peralta) 8:10 ET
With the starting pitching mismatch clearly in our favor, along with the huge edge at the plate and in the bullpen, I can only see this history being extended. We will also make the play on the run line, as it is supported by a 100% situation this season, along with strong history dating several years.

 

St. Louis Cardinals
The predominant thing to note about the Cards’ YTD record is their dichotomy against the weaker teams they have faced vs. the more competitive opponents. The Cards are 6-16 when facing the likes of the Cubs, the Pirates, the Dodgers and the Nationals. But against all others, they are 21-9. The success can be attributed to their outstanding hitting, which shows them with the No. 2 OPS at .794, notably better than the Brewers’ .728. There is also a huge discrepancy in the bullpen, where Cardinal relievers have spun a .703 OPS to the Brewers’ .766 OPS.  The dichotomy in starting pitching is even greater. 

 

Milwaukee Brewers
Neither of these starters has a strong history against the opposing bats. But, the current form of these pitchers and the record of Peralta from this mound complete the evening mismatch. After a shaky start for his new team, Leake is pitching his best baseball of the season. In his first 6 outings, Leake was 0-3 with a 6.03 ERA. Since that time, spanning 4 starts, the veteran has worked 28 IP allowing just 4 runs. Peralta has been horrendous the entire season with a 6.62 ERA and .995 OPS. His troubles have been the greatest from this mound, where in 24 2/3 IP, he has allowed 24 earned runs with a .390 BAA.  

 

Conclusions
All the above strongly support a run line play! With the average batting OPS rising to .727 for the year in MLB, we are seeing more games decided by 2 or more runs than in any season over the last 7 years. Well over 72% of all MLB games are decided by 2 or more runs, including a run the last 4 days of 47-13 for 78%. With that as a backdrop, know that 51 of 59 St. Louis’ road wins (the last 2 years), including 14 of 14 (100%) this year, have been decided by 2 or more runs. For Milwaukee, in the last 3+ years, a whopping 113 of 143 home losses have been decided by 2 or more runs. I invite you to put the MLB odds in your favor and join me in my MLB picks on the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.

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Free MLB Pick: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+110)
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker