Going ‘under’ the MLB Odds at Safeco Field

LT Profits Sports Group

Sunday, August 10, 2014 4:25 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 10, 2014 4:25 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Sunday.


Even though neither pitcher has a good ERA, there is almost always hidden value in the ‘under’ in Seattle and such should be the case again Sunday when southpaw John Danks and the Chicago White Sox (56-62, 27-34 away) pay a visit to right-hander Erasmo Ramirez and the Seattle Mariners (61-55, 30-32 home) in the final game of a four-game weekend series from Safeco Field in Seattle, WA at 4:10 ET in a game available on WGN.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +104.

M’s Trying to Stay in Playoff Hunt
The Mariners uncharacteristically loosened the purse strings this off-season with some free agent signings including Robinson Cano, and while that spending will not net the Mariners a division title as they trail the Oakland Athletics by 11 games while in third place in the American League West, they are still alive in the playoff hunt trailing the Kansas City Royals by just 1½ games for the last wild card spot.

After being the right MLB pick in the first two games of this series, Seattle lost a heartbreaker to the White Sox 2-1 in 10 innings last night as a key error set up Chicago’s winning run. The White Sox remain in fourth place in the American League Central and nine games behind the division-leading St. Louis Cardinals, but they have exceeded preseason expectations by being only six games below .500 at this stage of the season after finishing 63-99 last year.

Ramirez Better Lately
Ramirez has shuttled between the Mariners and Triple-A this season and there is a strong chance he will be sent back to the minor leagues after this start. The irony there is that his last five starts at the Major League level have been good, and yet Seattle seemingly lacks the faith to keep him in the rotation, even with nothing left to prove at Triple-A where he now has eight straight Quality Starts with a 3.18 ERA in that stretch.

Sure Ramirez remains just 1-5 with a 4.35 ERA for the big club, but he has actually now allowed two runs or less in each of his last five starts for the Mariners and his last start before his most recent demotion vs. the New York Mets may had been his best yet as he allowed two runs on only five hits with 10 strikeouts in seven innings! Also, Ramirez has understandably pitched better in this ballpark despite an 0-3 home mark as he has a 3.29 ERA in the Emerald City.

Danks Awful Last Time Out
Now Danks was off to a surprisingly good start this year, but that beginning is long forgotten as he has slipped to 9-7 with a hefty 4.93 ERA and 1.47 WHIP after getting tattooed for nine runs by the Texas Rangers in 4.2 innings on eight hits plus five walks in his last start on Tuesday.

However, Danks is capable of rebounding vs. a Seattle offense ranked 21st in the Major Leagues in batting at .245, 22nd in scoring at 3.88 runs per game and 27th in team OPS at .673, and furthermore the Mariners are batting just .236 and averaging 3.68 runs here at home.

The southpaw Danks has certainly demonstrated that he can handle the Seattle lineup with eight Quality Starts in his last nine starts vs. the Mariners and like most pitchers he loves pitching at Safeco Field with a 2.46 career ERA in eight starts in this stadium.

Big Pitchers’ Ballpark
The reason pitchers love this park besides its spacious dimensions is because the ball does not carry well here either, and as a result games at Safeco are averaging just a combined 6.73 runs this season with the ‘under’ going 37-20, 64.9 percent.

With this in mind, look for yet another ‘under’ in Seattle on Sunday.

MLB Pick: White Sox, Mariners ‘under’ 8 (+104)

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