Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.
There could be an intense, low scoring battle inside the American League Central Tuesday night when southpaw Kyle Lobstein and the Detroit Tigers (75-62, 40-32 away) pay a visit to right-hander Carlos Carrasco and the Cleveland Indians (70-65, 39-26 home) in the second game of a four-game series from Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH at 7:05 ET in a game televised regionally on MLB Network.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at a positive +108.
Not Going as Detroit Planned
The Detroit Tigers were expected to run away with the American League Central once they acquired David Price at the trading deadline, as that gave them a starting rotation of three former Cy Young Award winners (Price, Scherzer, Verlander), the reigning AL ERA champion (Anibal Sanchez) and a fifth starter having a career year in Rick Porcello. Plus, they had just acquired a bona fide closer in Joakim Soria.
However, things have not gone as planned for Detroit as Sanchez and Soria are on the Disabled List and the Kansas City Royals became the hottest MLB picks in baseball, currently leaving the Tigers in second place one-half game back. Do not forget about the third place Indians either, although the Tigers made an emphatic statement in the series opener here Monday by winning 12-1 on the road, pushing Cleveland 4½ games behind the first place Royals.
Carrasco in Raging Form
Still, Cleveland just may have the right pitcher to even up this series and at the very least draw closer to the Tigers and a wild card spot tonight in Carrasco, who was oft maligned early on this season but has been in incredible form in his four starts since re-entering the starting rotation on August 10th!
Carrasco could not make it out of April without being demoted to the bullpen after going 0-3 with a 6.95 ERA in four starts, but he steadily lowered that ERA with nice work out of the pen, and he has been a totally different pitcher since rejoining the rotation.
Amazingly, he has allowed a grand total of two runs in his first four starts back translating to a 0.73 ERA, and he has 24 strikeouts vs. just three walks in 24.2 innings in those starts!
Lobstein Earned Second Start
The Tigers have been trying to fill Sanchez’s rotation spot ever since he was disabled, and most recently they recalled Lobstein after he had some solid seasons at Triple-A as Robbie Ray and Buck Farmer both struggled when given the opportunity to fill this rotation spot.
And Lobstein earned this second start after limiting the New York Yankees to two runs (but just one earned) on just four hits in six innings without walking a single batter in his first Major League start on Thursday. Unfortunately that just netted the youngster a no-decision, but he kept his team in the game and Detroit eventually won 3-2 with a run in the ninth inning.
The southpaw now gets to face a Cleveland lineup averaging only 3.61 runs per game vs. left-handed pitchers at home while batting .241 against them here in Cleveland, compared to a .260 average and 4.53 runs per game vs. righties in this stadium.
Cleveland Trending ‘under’
The result last night notwithstanding, the Tribe have gotten good pitching at home as of late with the rejuvenated Carrasco unexpectedly leading the charge, but the offense has been a bit more sporadic. Because of those two factors, Monday’s result snapped an 8-0 run for the ‘under’ in Cleveland home games.
Look for Carrasco to maintain his form and for a new ‘under’ home streak to begin in Cleveland on Tuesday.
MLB Pick: Tigers, Indians ‘under’ 8 (+108)