Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out an MLB total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.
Just because the game has no playoff implications, it does not mean we cannot benefit from a lack of scoring when right-hander Jordan Lyles and the Colorado Rockies (59-84, 20-49 away) pay a visit to southpaw Jonathan Niese and the New York Mets (68-75, 33-35 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET in a game available on SNY.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103.
Tied for Worst Record in NL
The Rockies have now won four straight games and come off of a 5-1 home stand, but that still leaves them tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for being the worst MLB picks in the National League at 59-84 and they must hate to leave their home in Colorado, right now as they are actually 39-35 at Coors Field but a pathetic 20-49 on the road.
The Mets return home form a good 4-2 road trip where they won both of their series, first taking two out of three from the Miami Marlins and then repeating that feat vs. the Cincinnati Reds. That still leaves the Mets seven games below .500 and in fourth place in the National League East though, and they have not had much of a home field advantage since the grand opening of spacious Citi Field, with this year being no exception as New York is only 33-35 at home.
Niese Good at Home
While the Mets have struggled at home, that is almost entirely due to the offense as the pitchers mostly love pitching here, with the southpaw Niese included. His last start came on the road last Tuesday in Miami where he was blasted for six runs on 10 hits by the Marlins, but that snapped a good streak of four straight Quality Starts regardless of the venues.
Niese has actually been one of the Mets’ better pitchers all year despite his 8-10 record as he does have a 3.68 ERA overall, but even he has pitched better in Flushing where he is a deceptive 3-4 given his 3.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 50 strikeouts vs. just 18 walks in 11 starts covering 66.1 innings.
Niese has not faced the Rockies this year and he faced them just once last season in Colorado, although he did receive credit for a Quality Start in the altitude as he allowed three runs in six innings.
Lyles Good on Road
Lyles came to the Rockies from the Houston Astros, and he been limited to 18 starts this season due to a stint on the Disabled List with a broken finger on his non-throwing hand. Still, the right-hander Lyles has actually managed to go 6-2 while pitching for a team that is 25 games under .500. Granted he has done that with a 4.35 ERA, but that is actually half-decent when you build in the Coors Field factor.
You see, when Lyles has pitched at sea level away from home, he is 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 41 strikeouts vs. 21 walks in 51.1 road innings. He has faced the Mets just once in his brief career, but that start came here at Citi Field where he allowed just one run and three hits in six innings. Granted Lyles has just one win in his last 10 starts, but that has more to do with the Colorado offense not giving him much support than the way that he has pitched.
Poor Home/Away Batting Splits
And even taking the pitchers out of the equation, just the home vs. away batting splits alone for these two teams would support a low scoring affair. That is because the Rockies are batting just .224 overall while averaging 3.29 runs per game away from the altitude of Denver, while the reason the Mets have not been better at home is because their lineup is not built to handle these dimensions, as they are batting .219 and averaging 3.56 runs in Flushing!
Those splits plus two competent pitchers should combine to produce an ‘under’ in New York on Monday.
MLB Pick: Rockies, Mets ‘under’ 7 (-103)