Going ‘over’ MLB Odds in KC in World Series Game 6

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, October 27, 2014 3:48 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 27, 2014 3:48 PM UTC

Each day during the MLB Playoffs, LT Profits seek out a total that does not add up and offers the most value that day. Here is their Playoff Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.


A return to Kansas City could mean an ‘over’ in a Game 2 rematch Tuesday night when Jake Peavy and the San Francisco Giants (99-78, 48-40 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Yordano Ventura and the Kansas City Royals (99-76, 47-40 home) in Game 6 of the World Series from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO at 8:07 ET in a game televised nationally on FOX with San Francisco now leading the series 3-2.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at -118.

Both Games in KC Went ‘over’
The Giants would be World Series Champions for the third time in five years if they are the winning MLB picks here after taking a 3-2 series lead with a 5-0 win Sunday back home in San Francisco behind yet another Complete Game four-hit shutout for the remarkable Madison Bumgarner. A Giants’ win would also continue their pattern of winning the World Series in every even numbered year after being crowned champions in 2010 and 2012.

Unfortunately for the Giants though, Bumgarner is probably now done pitching in this series and the last two games (if necessary) are in Kansas City, so another championship is hardy a done deal just yet. And the change in scenery from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park, where two of the three middle games went ‘under’ in this series, could mean higher scoring, especially since the first two game here at Kauffman Stadium went ‘over’ and this is a Game 2 pitching rematch.

Peavy Not Sharp on Game 2
Peavy had good numbers for the Giants during the regular season, but his much weaker sabremetric numbers in the National League suggested that he merely took advantage of pitching in his spacious new home stadium. He also had a poor history of working deeply into games during the post-season over his career and a checkered history when facing the Royals and both of those negatives continued in Game 2.

You see, Peavy posted a stellar 2.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 78.2 innings for the Giants since they picked him up from the Boston Red Sox and he ended the year by allowing two earned runs or less in each of his nine regular season starts. However, much like earlier in his career when he took advantage of pitching in Petco Park while with the San Diego Padres, he probably just pitched to the dimensions of his stadium given that he finished with just a 4.01 xFIP as a Giant.

Peavy also entered Game 2 having failed to go even six innings in any of his seven career post-season starts, and you can now make it eight starts as he lasted only five innings here in Kansas City while allowing four earned runs on six hits plus two walks with just one strikeout. Remember also that Peavy had been in the American League since those San Diego days before coming to the Giants, and he has a 4.97 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Royals.

Improved Performance
Ventura was literally the hardest thrower in baseball this season as the average velocity of his fastball of 96.6 MPH was the highest average velocity for any Major League starter, with that figure topping out at an almost invisible 101.9 MPH. However, short of one Quality Start vs. the Angels in the ALDS, Ventura has not really matched his regular season form that saw him win 14 games as a rookie with a 3.20 ERA and 159 strikeouts vs. 69 walks this post-season.

Granted he was better in Game 2 allowing just two earned runs in 5.1 innings, but he still allowed eight hits and was not allowed to go through the San Francisco lineup a third time and he also had just two strikeouts. That leaves Ventura with just a 4.42 ERA this post-season over three starts and one relief appearance with an uncharacteristically low 10 strikeouts in 18.1 innings.

That Game 2 start was Ventura’s first ever appearance vs. San Francisco and the Giants did not seem impressed. Luckily Peavy was worse and the Royals did win that game 7-2.

Trending ‘over’
Finally, including the first two games of this series the ‘over’ is now 9-4-1 in the Royals’ last 14 home games and that includes regular season games with much higher posted totals than this one, and the ‘over’ is 5-1 in Ventura’s last six starts overall. The ‘over’ is also 6-2 in the Giants’ last eight games vs. right-handed starters.

Look for a replay of when these pitchers met in Game 2 here in regards to total run output, so look for an ‘over’ in Game 6 of the World Series in Kansas City on Tuesday.

MLB Pick: Giants, Royals ‘over’ 7 (-118)

comment here