Go Under On a Low Set Total For Profitable Play on Rangers vs Mariners

Yu Darvish

Friday, May 5, 2017 1:26 PM GMT

We are going to take a look at one of the more interesting totals of the day when the Texas Rangers take on the Seattle Mariners in Seattle. It seems like odds makers have set this total just a little bit too low for an American League game, but where is the better value play?

Texas Rangers

Yu Darvish takes the mound for Texas and comes in with a 3.03 ERA and 1.06 whip in six appearances this season. Over the past few seasons, he has faced Seattle three times and has a 3.72 ERA versus them with the Mariners hitting .250 against him. With Darvish, though you know he has the capability to come in and put up some really solid numbers while keeping teams to a low total. At the plate, Texas is not as dangerous as we have seen in years past as a coming hitting just .223 as a team and averaging 7.34 hits per game both ranking them 28th in the major leagues. Across the board, there isn’t one offensive category in which they rank in the top 10 in the league and even their on-base percentage is pretty woeful at .299 which ranks them 26th. With their poor statistics, it’s hard to believe that they are going to put up some serious numbers tonight.

 

Seattle Mariners

Yovani Gallardo gets the start for Seattle and comes in with a 5.08 ERA and 1.55 whip along with a horrible 6.55 ERA at home. On those numbers alone, even against the not so dangerous Rangers, my radar really gets up considering the low total set by oddsmakers. At the plate, Seattle has been decent hitting .251 as a team and averaging 8.52 hits per game ranking them 12th and 13th in the major leagues respectively. They also are averaging 4.90 runs per game along with a .331 on-base percentage both which ranks them seventh. This line really bothers me considering these numbers and that Seattle has some nice pieces in their offensive lineup. I understand the pitcher they’re facing the day is no slouch but I would think at home they would be old to put up their share of runs. For me, this is a bit of an opposite play so I just don’t think they get to the number.

 

MLB Odds

Oddsmakers have set a surprisingly low 7.5 total for this matchup and for my MLB pick, I will back the under. This is simply numbers play for me in that it looks a little bit off and since the odds makers are not accustomed to giving away free money I’m going to go against the perception that this will be a high-scoring game.

Free MLB Pick: Under 7.5Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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