Go The Upset Route For Padres-Dodgers Series Opener

SBR Picks Staff

Thursday, July 7, 2016 5:07 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 7, 2016 5:07 PM UTC

Division rivals San Diego and Los Angeles will head into weekend series and All-Star game wanting to close on a strong note. Those betting baseball have many factors to consider on series opener.

San Diego Padres vs. L.A. Dodgers
With last night's 13-6 victory over Arizona, the Padres have won three of four series and the offense has been clicking at a much higher rate. After winning five in a row and seven of eight, the Dodgers lost past two outings to Baltimore, including yesterday's 14-inning marathon, in which they had countless chances to put away the Orioles. For MLB picks, your friendly handicapper is feeling quite confident he can improve on 24-14 baseball record at SBR.


Pitching Matchup - Pomeranz vs. Ryu
Drew Pomeranz (7-7, 2.65 ERA and 1.09 WHIP) could have even a better record for San Diego with a few more runs from teammates, but he will take his current situation. Pomeranz at 27 has already established career highs in wins and innings pitched and hopes the troublesome AC joint injury in his left shoulder is a thing of the past. Opposing hitters are batting only .191 against the left-hander and he's made great strides to becoming a competent starter, with right-handed batters having only a .171 average in 2016. Pomeranz, however, is 0-3 lifetime versus L.A. in five starts.

Hyun-Jin Ryu will make his first start in nearly two years, having last pitched in the 2014 playoffs. He was hurt in spring training last year and it was diagnosed as a torn labrum and had surgery 14 months ago. Despite two setbacks this year, Ryu and the Dodgers are ready to pitch him at the big league level after eight minor league starts. The lefty is not all the way back, as his fastball, which was previously in the low 90's, has averaged 86-87 thus far.


Offensive Numbers
After being one the weaker National League teams offensively, the Pads bats are as hot as the engine of a tricked out street race car. In San Diego's last dozen contests, they have tallied 6.1 runs per game and moved all the way up to 4.4 RPG. Spearheading the attack is Wil Meyers (.295 BA and 19 HR's) and Yangervis Solarte (.308 BA and .390 OBP). And this is being accomplished without Jon Jay, who was their top player until fractured forearm was discovered in late June.

The Dodgers are now actually scoring fewer runs than the Padres at 4.2 RPG. Los Angeles ranks 10th in the NL in several key offensive categories and first-year manager Dave Roberts has shown little interest in trying to manufacture runs and lets his players swing away in important spots. For Los Angeles to close the gap on front-running San Francisco, the offense has to be more consistent.


Betting Odds, History and Bullpen Numbers
The MLB odds at sportsbooks have the Dodgers at -132 with total of 7. Since 2014, Los Angeles has dominated San Diego with a 31-16 record, which includes 15-7 mark at Chavez Ravine, with the UNDER 12-10 at that location. If this or any contest is close in the late innings, decided edge to the home team with the L.A. bullpen at league-best 2.90 ERA and the Friars 13th at 4.60.


Game Outcome
It is easy to make a case for the Dodgers, with 27-17 home record this season and able to handle the Padres with relative ease the last few years. Nonetheless, San Diego's offense is smoldering, they have the decidedly better-starting pitcher and L.A. has only scored 3.3 RPG facing lefty starters. Let's go the upset route here.

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Free MLB Pick: San Diego +122 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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