Go with the 'Under' for Yankees vs. Red Sox Series Finale

Darin Zank

Sunday, August 3, 2014 12:37 PM UTC

Sunday, Aug. 3, 2014 12:37 PM UTC

These two teams have split the first two games of this series, following New York's 6-4 victory Saturday. Which way should we go with our free MLB pick for Game 3 of this series Sunday evening (8 pm ET, ESPN)?

Sunday's Betting Odds
In early betting action Boston and Clay Buchholz were chalked at around -125 over New York and David Phelps, with a total of nine runs.

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Saturday Re-Hash
Boston scored three runs in the second inning, but New York, with help from Derek Jeter's bases-loaded bloop double, tallied four times in the top of the third, then held on from there for a 6-4 victory. The Yanks won as +105 dogs on Saturday's MLB betting odds, and the game played 'over' its total of 8.5 runs.

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Sunday's Starters
Buchholz (5-7, 5.87), by our strict standards, is only 6/17 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last three. Monday Toronto bombed him for seven runs in five innings, and over his last three starts he's been tagged for 15 ER in 17 innings.

For the season Bucky has allowed 118 hits in 97 innings, walked 33 and struck out 70. Boston is 7-10 in games Buchholz has started, with the totals leaning toward the 'overs' by an 11-5 tilt.

Since the beginning of last season Buchholz has started four times against the Yankees, stifling them to three ER through 24 innings of work; Boston won three of those four games.

Phelps (5-5, 3.89) is 6/16 on quality starts this year, to go along with nine appearances in relief. Last time out Texas got to Phelps for four runs in six innings, but over his five starts previous to that he held foes to eight ER through 30 innings.

On the season Phelps has allowed 105 hits in 106 innings, walked 38 and struck out 89. New York is only 5-11 in games Phelps has started, even though the totals have leaned toward the 'unders' by a 10-6 margin.

Phelps hasn't started against Boston since October of 2012, and that lineup was a little different than the one he'll face Sunday night.


Free MLB Pick
We're not sure who's going to win this game, but nine runs seems a bit high for the total. So we'll go with the 'under' for our free MLB pick on Sunday night's series finale.

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