Gimme 5: Players to Back (Smoak) or Fade for Prop Bets Thursday

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, April 19, 2018 3:34 PM UTC

Thursday, Apr. 19, 2018 3:34 PM UTC

MLB prop betting takes mounds of research and combing through hours of stats to find the perfect odds. Sportsbook Review has complied a daily report of the best prop betting matchups on Thursday’s slate.

MLB: Thursday's Gimme 5

Justin Smoak vs. CC Sabathia

Toronto's Justin Smoak is having a cool start to the season. That can be attributed to a couple of factors, including all the cancelations and some tough splits. However, Smoak has crushed Yankees lefty CC Sabathia over his career and he could be in for a strong night at the plate tonight in New York. Smoak has struggled over the last week, but that could help improve his odds of producing runs and/or collecting multiple hits. For his career, Smoak owns a 10-for-29 (.345) batting clip against Sabathia with 2 homers and 7 RBI. His odds to record just 1 run or RBI are at -136 at BetOnline and it’s very appealing.

Curtis Granderson vs. CC Sabathia

While a player such as Smoak has crushed Sabathia over his career, the story is pretty different for several other Blue Jays, including Curtis Granderson. He is 4-for-24 (.167) with no extra-base hits and a strikeout rate of 36 percent against the Yankees' veteran left-hander.

Gregory Polanco vs. Jake Arrieta

Gregory Polanco was probably rushed to the big leagues, which has been admitted by the Pirates in one way or another over the years. Even though Polanco is hitting just .197 this season, he has smashed 5 home runs with 15 RBI -- a pace of more than 50 homers and 150 RBI. That is likely not sustainable, but Polanco’s odds of driving in a run or two have to be worth it with his matchup against Philadelphia's Jake Arrieta. Polanco is a career .250 hitter, and is batting only .235 off Arrieta. However, in those 38 plate appearances, Polanco has 3 home runs and 8 RBI. The cross-state road matchup against the Phillies isn’t ideal, but with Polanco’s average dipping, his odds to hit a home run or drive in multiple runs could be above even money, enough where it’s a solid option with your MLB picks.

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David Freese vs. Jake Arrieta

Pittsburgh's David Freese has not been successful against Arrieta during his time in the NL Central. Freese has struck out nine time in 25 at-bats against Philly's righty, a strikeout rate of 36 percent. He has homered off Arrieta, but that and 1 other extra-base hit is all he has produced against Arrieta. Lay off Freese in any fringe prop betting found on the MLB odds board.

Orioles hitters vs. Jordan Zimmermann

I usually don’t like to include whole team matchups in this section if there is a somewhat smaller sample size. However, due to the smaller slate of MLB and the sheer dominance the Orioles have had against Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann, it’s worth noting their recent history against one another. In just 65 total O’s batters faced in his career, Zimmermann has given up 9 home runs and allowed the Orioles to hit .311 off him. While the sample size is very small, it could pay off. Zimmerman has had a rough start to the season including a couple of bad starts and then getting hit by a come-backer in the jaw his last time on the hill. Today against Baltimore, things might not get any better for the Tigers’ righty.

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