Gimme 5: Players to Back (Rizzo) or Fade (Kemp) for Prop Bets Friday

Jordan Sharp

Friday, May 18, 2018 2:15 PM UTC

Friday, May. 18, 2018 2:15 PM UTC

MLB prop betting takes mounds of research and combing through hours of stats to find the perfect odds. Luckily, here at Sportsbook Review we have complied a daily report of the best prop betting matchups that the Friday, May 18 slate has to offer.

Eugenio Suarez (Reds) vs. Jon Lester (Cubs)

Because the Reds are absolute trash and somewhat of a joke of a baseball team this season, Suarez’s huge season has gone somewhat unnoticed by the betting community. The fantasy industry is taking notice, and those of you looking for prop value might need to take notice as well.

Suarez owns a .297 batting average and 30 RBI this season, and against Lester he’s been just as good in his career. Suarez is 8-for-27 (.296) with 2 home runs, 5 RBI and 5 total extra-base hits vs. the Cubs’ southpaw, so back Suarez once again with a prop on his runs, hits and RBI. It could be one of the better over values on the slate if he can keep up his beating of Lester.

Anthony Rizzo (Cubs) vs. Homer Bailey (Reds)

On the flip side of the Reds and Cubs is Rizzo. The Cubs’ slugger is on pace for a pretty poor season in the efficiency side of things, but he has 6 home runs and 23 RBI this season, and his average of .195 might increase tonight against Bailey.

Rizzo has dominated Bailey in the past to the tune of 9-for-22 (.409) with 2 home runs, 6 RBI, 5 total extra-base hits, and 6 walks. That’s an OPS of 1.370. If you get +300 or better odds on Rizzo to send one out of the park, take that action tonight.

Chris Iannetta (Rockies) vs. Derek Holland (Giants)

Iannetta walked and scored a run Thursday night for the Rockies, and after two straight days of not starting behind the plate, the Rockies have a nice chance to get some run production from their hard-hitting catcher tonight.

Iannetta has beaten up on Holland in his career, so I suspect Iannetta will get the start. For his career, Iannetta is 10-for-28 (.357) with a home run, 6 RBI and 3 total extra-base hits. He has a .536 slugging percentage against the Giants’ lefty, so back Iannetta in some props if you can find them tonight.

Matt Kemp (Dodgers) vs. Max Scherzer (Nationals)

Kemp is having a big season and if he wasn’t hitting .316 on the year, the Dodgers might be having an even worse season. However, with the Dodgers facing off against the Nats and Scherzer, Kemp could be a player to fade in prop bets on Friday.

Kemp is only 6-for-46 (.130) in his career against the Nationals’ ace. Kemp does own a solo home run off Scherzer, but he also has a strikeout rate of 28.6%. Even after 3 hits on Thursday night, Kemp might not even be in the lineup tonight if the Dodgers can fill out a team without his bat. Either way he’s a fade.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Light-tower power.

— MLB (@MLB) May 18, 2018

Kolten Wong (Cardinals) vs. Jake Arrieta (Phillies)

The Cardinals continue their series against the Phillies on Friday, and an old foe is up against the Redbirds tonight. From his time in the NL Central with the Cubs, Arrieta has beaten up on the Cardinals. Even with the new uniform, Arrieta could have a big night in Busch Stadium.

Wong, on the other hand, may be in for a tough night. Wong is only 8-for-25 (.229) over his career against Arrieta, with only 1 extra-base hit, and 10 strikeouts. Considering Arrieta has a lifetime 2.92 ERA and a 23.3% strikeout rate pitching in Busch Stadium, it could be wise to fade Wong and most of the Cards.

comment here