Gimme 5: Players to Back (Judge) or Fade for Prop Bets Friday

aaron judge

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, April 5, 2018 8:49 PM GMT

Thursday, Apr. 5, 2018 8:49 PM GMT

MLB prop betting takes mounds of research and combing through hours of stats to find the perfect odds. Luckily, here at Sportsbook Review we have complied a daily report of the best prop betting matchups that Friday’s slate has to offer.

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Rockies Hitters vs. Brandon McCarthy

A Friday afternoon game awaits the Rockies at Coors Field, and with Brandon McCarthy starting for the Braves, the Rockies’ potential of putting up runs goes from good to great. Colorado’s hitters have a .299 combined lifetime batting average off McCarthy, headlined by D.J. LeMahieu who is a career 7-for-15 against McCarthy, and Nolan Arenado, who has homered twice against the veteran in 16 career plate appearances.

McCarthy owns a 7.94 ERA over 17 career innings in Coors Field, so the Rockies’ hitters are obviously going to be juiced up in their prop odds. However, there are other ways to take advantage of this game if the juice is too loose. As I talk about below, the Rockies are in a good spot defensively Friday afternoon, and if their offense drops 6-8 runs, the run line of -1½ +110 looks like a strong play for the matinee.

German Marquez Day Game Splits

Pitching in Coors Field is never an optimal scenario, but German Marquez has managed to have better home splits than road splits during his brief major-league career. Marquez owns a 4.29 ERA at home compared to 4.68 on the road, and hitters own a .260 batting average off him in Coors compared to .301 when Marquez is away from the Mile High City.

Now combine that with Marquez’ splits during his 13 career day game starts at a 3.27 ERA, and the Braves might struggle some against the Rockies’ right-hander. With a total of 10½, the sportsbooks are expecting a ton of runs but most of them might be coming from the home team.

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Aaron Judge vs. Kevin Gausman

Since the calendar turned to April, Aaron Judge has been crushing the ball, and things are looking up yet again Friday as he prepares to tee off against Orioles righty Kevin Gausman. During Judge’s brief major-league career he has smoked Gausman to the tune of 6-for-12 with 3 home runs, 5 RBIs and 7 runs scored.

It could be another night of "All Rise" from the crowd at Yankee Stadium on Friday. If Judge’s prop odds for combined runs, hits and RBI are right on Friday, it’s a night to strike up an 'over' play.

Adam Jones & Manny Machado vs. CC Sabathia

Old rivals hook up again on Friday as the Orioles continue their series in Yankee Stadium. Adam Jones and Manny Machado have faced CC Sabathia a combined 141 times throughout their careers, and the battle has been very one-sided in favor of the O’s hitters.

Machado has struggled some to start the season, but he is a career .353 hitter against Sabathia with 3 home runs and 11 RBIs. Jones has been even better during his 86 career plate appearances versus Sabathia with a .301 average, 5 home runs, 15 RBIs and 14 runs scored. Both of their prop odds could be inflated some due to their strong BVP stats, but another 'over' play on their combined runs, hits and RBIs from Bovada might be in order.

Oakland Hitters vs. Parker Bridwell

The Angels recently placed Matt Shoemaker on the disabled list, so Parker Bridwell is getting the start at home on Friday against the Oakland Athletics. Bridwell pitched well overall in 20 starts last season, but in his two starts against the A’s things got a little dicey.

Bridwell allowed 13 runs over six innings of work (19.50 ERA) in those two starts, and if things don’t improve here in 2018, Oakland’s offense and moneyline of -120 have some betting value. Consider a bet on Matt Olson, too, as he's 2-for-4 with two homers and four RBIs off Bridwell.

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