Gimme 5: Players to Back (Gregorius) or Fade (Harper) for Prop Bets Friday

Jordan Sharp

Friday, April 20, 2018 1:49 PM UTC

Friday, Apr. 20, 2018 1:49 PM UTC

MLB prop betting takes mounds of research and combing through hours of stats to find the perfect odds. Luckily, here at Sportsbook Review we have complied a daily report of the best prop betting matchups that Friday’s slate has to offer.

Didi Gregorius vs. Marco Estrada

The Yankees have been shuffling around their lineup some due to the early-season struggles of their new slugger, Giancarlo Stanton. On Thursday, that meant flip-flopping Stanton and Gregorius in the lineup. If Gregorius is still hitting out of the third spot Friday, not only does that mean he might have an extra at bat, it also means his position against Jays righty Estrada is extra special.

Gregorius has owned Estrada during their careers, and if Gregorius moves behind Aaron Judge and in front of Stanton permanently in the order, it’s going to really boost the Yankees’ shortstop’s run production. Against Estrada, Gregorius just has a career .237 batting average, but he’s smashed 3 home runs, 5 RBI and 6 extra-base hits off him as well. If Didi is still hitting in between those two sluggers, he is definitely going to get some pitches to hit, and he is definitely a strong prop play Friday.

Jose Abreu vs. Justin Verlander

Another heavy hitter whose matchup is worth a look in prop bets is Abreu. The White Sox’s first baseman has been heating up lately with hits in five of his last six games. The big man is batting 8-for-27 (.296) during that stretch with 2 home runs, 6 RBI and 5 runs scored.

Now on Friday he is up against a familiar foe in Verlander. While Verlander has been pitching very well to start the year, Abreu’s career success against the right-hander cannot be ignored. Abreu owns a 14-for-25 (.400) career-batting clip against Verlander, and he’s cranked 5 home runs and 7 extra base hits off the veteran righty. If Abreu can get 3/1 or even 4/1 odds to hit a home run, it’s worth a shot despite Verlander’s hot start to the year.

Bryce Harper vs. Clayton Kershaw

Harper is almost always in the "back" section of this article if he’s included. Instead, his Friday matchup with Kershaw may be one to avoid. Harper will already be chalked and juiced up in his prop odds thanks to a hot start to the season, but as we know Kershaw can sit the Nats’ phenom down.

Harper has faced Kershaw 18 times in their careers, and Harper has one hit against him -- a home run. However, Harper has also struck out 12 times against Kershaw, which is an insane strikeout rate of 66.6%. I would not touch Harper in any prop betting.

A Few Twins vs. Chris Archer

Archer, the Tampa Bay ace, faces Minnesota at Tropicana Field on Friday. Archer has an ugly 7.84 ERA on the season but he eats the lunch of a few Twins batters. Jason Castro is just 3-for-20 off him with nine strikeouts. Brian Dozier is 3-for-21 with seven strikeouts. Miguel Sano is 1-for-9 with eight Ks. Eduardo Escobar is 2-for-12 with three whiffs.

So, it may be wise to bet 'over' Archer's strikeouts in this one.

Carlos Gomez vs. Lance Lynn

Gomez is now with the Rays, but his career struggles against the Twins’ Lynn cannot be ignored. Even though Gomez will get every chance in the world to hit for this struggling Rays offense, it may not be his night against Lynn.

In 26 career at-bats, Gomez has only collected 4 hits off Lynn, and none of them have gone for extra bases. On top of that, Gomez has struck out 14 times against Lynn. Even though Gomez strikes out a lot already, his 50% strikeout rate against the Twins’ righty is enough to lay off him for any prop bets, or in your fantasy lineups.

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