Gimme 5: Players to Back (Castillo) or Fade for Prop Bets Sunday

Homer Bailey

Jordan Sharp

Saturday, April 14, 2018 8:37 PM GMT

Saturday, Apr. 14, 2018 8:37 PM GMT

MLB prop betting takes mounds of research and combing through hours of stats to find the perfect odds. Luckily, here at Sportsbook Review we have complied a daily report of the best prop betting matchups that Sunday’s slate has to offer.

Welington Castillo vs. Lane Lynn

The White Sox and Twins got rained out Saturday, so they will try to do it again on Sunday afternoon. Lance Lynn is on the mound for the Twins, and even on new teams, Welington Castillo’s ownership of Lynn should continue in the AL.

The White Sox’ catcher only has 13 career plate appearances against Lynn, which is normally too small a sample size to remain relevant in a matchup like this. However, of those 12 at bats, Castillo has 8 hits, and 3 of them were solo home runs. That’s dominance even on just a dozen at bats. Castillo has been a platoon catcher for most of his career, but his bat carries some weight. His odds to hit a home run Sunday might also carry some value.

Jason Castro vs. Miguel Gonzalez

This one kind of caught me off guard because it’s somewhat obscure, but it could also hold more value if the MLB Odds are sleeping on Jason Castro. The Twins’ catcher has been dominant against Miguel Gonzalez, so while we’re taking advantage of Castillo over Lynn on one side of this game, Castro’s side looks even better if he is in the lineup for Minnesota.

Assuming Castro is behind the plate after the scheduled game Saturday got rained out, he should be in store for major prop value. Castro is 5-for-17 lifetime against Gonzalez, and all five of those hits went for extra bases. Two of them were homers, and if you add Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar, the three Twins are 17-for-50 (.340) lifetime against Gonzalez.

Cardinals’ hitters vs. Homer Bailey

The St. Louis Cardinals’ offense has been a smoke show recently and all it took was a four game series in Great American Ballpark. Even though the ballpark in Cincinnati is a launching pad, the Cardinals are red hot and that spells bad news for Homer Bailey.

Over 134 career plate appearances against the Cardinal hitters, Bailey is allowing them to hit .443 with 5 home runs, 24 RBI, and 19 total extra base hits. After pouring on the offense for the first three games of the series, look for one final explosion from the Cards’ bats on Sunday. With St. Louis finally getting smart and leading off Tommy Pham, the sky is the limit for this offense against Bailey.

Justin Verlander vs. Shin-Soo Choo

On the flip side of things there are some pitching matchups with a ton of strikeout appeal on Sunday, and one of the biggest is Justin Verlander’s matchup against the Rangers and Shin-Soo Choo.

There is always a chance that the Rangers sit Choo out on Sunday after he started on Saturday, and against Verlander it might not be a bad idea. Choo has a total of 31 strikeouts over 77 plate appearances lifetime against Verlander, which is a strikeout rate of 40.3%.

Chris Sale vs. Orioles’ hitters

Chris Sale beats up on everyone, but since coming over to the AL East, Sale has been really great against Divisional opponents. The Orioles have been no exception, and some of their bigger name hitters like Chris Davis have struggled against him.

Out of 123 Orioles batters faced in his career, Sale is holding them to a .207 batting average and a 32.5% strikeout rate. The early MLB Odds for the total on this one is 7 runs, and if Sale blanks the O’s and Dylan Bundy pitches a strong game, that could be a nice under target. Sale will also have a chalky and hefty strikeout total from the sportsbooks.

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