Gimme 5: Players to Back (Cano) or Fade (Morrison) for Prop Bets Wednesday

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, April 25, 2018 2:19 PM UTC

Wednesday, Apr. 25, 2018 2:19 PM UTC

MLB prop betting takes mounds of research and combing through hours of stats to find the perfect odds. Sportsbook Review has complied a daily report of the best prop betting matchups on Wednesday's slate.

MLB Wednesday: Gimme 5

Robinson Cano vs. James Shields

The Seattle Mariners have crushed White Sox right-hander James Shields in the past, and no other Mariners batter has had success quite like Robinson Cano.

As a team the M’s have a 86-for-254 (.339) average against Shields, and Cano has been a big reason for that success. Cano is 38-for-92 (.413) against Shields with 6 home runs, 20 RBI, and a massive total of 17 extra-base hits. Cano will surely be chalked up in his prop odds thanks to these numbers against Shields, but with your MLB picks he still might be worth a play on his home run, or his runs, hits, and RBI props today.

Neil Walker vs. Lance Lynn

The New York Yankees are starting to swing the bats better with the weather warming up, and that could help Neil Walker produce some runs one way or another tonight. As a team, the Yankees are 23-for-67 (.343) against Lynn during their careers, and thanks to his time with the Pirates and Lynn’s tenure with the Cardinals, Walker has had plenty of at-bats against the righty.

Walker is a career 15-for-40 (.375) with 3 home runs, 10 RBI, and 9 extra-base hits off Lynn. Playing in Yankee Stadium tonight, Lynn could be in for a rough night. The MLB odds board has the Twins as +155 underdogs in the moneyline and that might not be enough if Lynn starts giving up long balls to a very dangerous offense.

Michael Wacha vs. Mets’ batters

Michael Wacha is an extremely talented right-handed pitcher for the Cardinals, and the Mets’ hitters have had first-hand experience with that in the past. As you can see, Jay Bruce has had the worst time with Wacha:

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

The Mets' Jay Bruce, who went hitless vs. Michael Wacha on Saturday, is 1-for-31 (.032 batting average) with 13 strikeouts in his career when facing the #stlcards right-hander.

— Mark Tomasik (@retrosimba) April 1, 2018

As a team, the Mets are 16-for-109 (.147) against Wacha. They have smashed 3 homers off him in their careers, but Wacha also has a 28.2% strikeout rate over 117 Mets hitters faced.

If the odds are right, the "over" might be in play for Wacha’s strikeout total. He hasn’t put up big strikeout totals to start the year, but that might help his odds of being undervalued for today's matchup.

Logan Morrison vs. Sonny Gray

Sonny Gray has dominated certain hitters over the past several seasons with both the Athletics and now the Yankees. Logan Morrison's history against Gray is concerning, and probably worth fading in fantasy and your prop bets.

As a team, the Twins aren’t bad against Gray, but Morrison is only 6-for-31 (.194) against him with 1 solo homer and a strikeout rate of 25.0%. If Morrison is in the lineup for the Twins against Gray tonight, it might be best to avoid him in your prop betting.

Starlin Castro vs. Clayton Kershaw

Pretty much everyone struggles against Clayton Kershaw, and the Miami Marlins are no exception. Miami’s hitters are a career 10-for-67 (.149) against Kershaw with a strikeout rate of 24.3%.

Starlin Castro has seen the biggest dip in his stats against Kershaw among the Marlins’ hitters. Castro is only 2-for-25 (.080) lifetime against Kershaw, and he has struck out in 7 of those 25 at-bats. Castro has driven in 1 run against Kershaw, and it’s probably wishful thinking to assume Castro can produce some runs off Kershaw tonight.

comment here