Giants Will Slither Past Diamondbacks in NL West Matchup

jeff samardzija giants

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, April 11, 2017 4:20 PM GMT

Arizona and San Francisco were among the biggest surprises of Week 1 for those betting baseball. Now the D-Backs are on the road and the Giants are home -- and Monday the home team was a 4-1 winner in the series opener.

MLB Season Record: 3-4 (-2.00 units)

Pitching Matchup: Ray Vs. Samardzija 

Let's get this out of the way early: I do not care for either starting pitcher. Robbie Ray (0-0, 4.74 ERA) is still just 25, and he does possess a very good fastball and slider, but often he will sail along for three, four and sometimes five innings and then get knocked around like a batting practice pitcher. Case in point to his inability to generate outs: Last year his starts averaged about 5.5 innings and in that time and he threw nearly 100 pitchers per outing. Roy looks good, he just is not to this point.

Jeff Samardzija (0-1, 10.13 ERA) has and will be making $19.8M a year for a few more seasons and for the various teams the former Notre Dame All-American receiver has pitched for as a starter, they are 69-97. Samardzija is a sinker/fastball hurler, and when he's on his game (which is not real often) his splitter is his out pitch and even that does not get as many swings and misses as a couple years ago. "Shark" is 2-2 with a 4.56 ERA in eight starts vs. Arizona, but has always thrown better against the Snakes at home.

 

Offensive Figures

Among the Diamondbacks players with at least 24 at-bats, Paul Goldschmidt is just fourth in batting average at .300. Ahead of him are eyebrow-lifting names like Brandon Drury (.417 BA), Chris Owings (.387) and Yasmany Tomas (.333). If this trio can stay hot and Jake Lamb and A.J. Pollock come around, this is a very good offense.

Skipper Bruce Bochy's offense is scoring 4.7 runs per game; however, the results from the outfield other than Hunter Pence have been putrid. Brandon Crawford (.367) Joe Panik (.348), Buster Posey (.333) and Brandon Belt (3 HRs and 7 RBIs) have been productive and have to lift up their teammates. Posey was hit on the head, though, Monday and might sit this out. 

 

Betting Odds, History & Bullpen Numbers

The starting MLB odds had San Francisco at -135 and 8 for the total and both have sunk, with the Giants under -130 at all sportsbooks checked and total 7.5. Recently, this series has been dominated by the visitor, and the D-Backs are 13-7 at AT&T Park with the 'under' 14-5-1. Surprisingly, the Arizona bullpen has been much more effective (3.62 ERA), with San Francisco's burned by too many hits and walks and possessing the league's worst on-base percentage allowed at .413.

 

The Winner Is ...

In truth, not much to choose from because of the starting pitchers; nonetheless, NL teams like Arizona batting .275 or higher after allowing four runs or less in four straight games are 9-30 since 2013. I will side with San Francisco.

MLB Free Pick: Giants -126Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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