Giants vs. Padres MLB Picks: Add Bumgarner & San Francisco to Cover -1.5 Run Line

Darin Zank

Thursday, September 24, 2015 5:42 PM GMT

San Francisco took a hit to its playoff chances last night, losing at San Diego as a betting underdog. The Giants are favored for Thursday night, though, with Madison Bumgarner headed toward the hill.

Giants-Padres Thursday Odds
As of mid-Thursday morning the best MLB odds we could find on San Francisco and Madison Bumgarner was the -156 at BetOnline, while San Diego with Ian Kennedy was getting +150 at 5Dimes.

 

The Situation
San Diego, to our chagrin, took Game 2 of this series Wednesday night 5-4, handing us a loss on our free MLB picks. San Francisco led 2-0 into the bottom of the seventh inning, trailed 4-3 into the top of the ninth, tied the game on a wild pitch, then lost it on a two-base hit in the bottom of the ninth.

With the loss the Giants dropped to seven games behind division-leading Los Angeles in the NL West, with time running out.

Meanwhile, even with the victory the Padres are just 4-8 over their last 12 games.

San Francisco leads this season series 11 games to seven, with the OVERS going 10-8.

 

Thursday's Pitching Matchup
This pitching matchup is a rematch of a game played 12 days ago, an 8-0 Giants win; Bumgarner threw a complete-game one-hitter, while Kennedy got rocked for seven runs in less than five innings of work.

Kennedy (8-15, 4.29), by our tough standards, is 13-for-28 on quality starts this season, and 0 for his last three. Last Friday he gave up four runs – three earned – through six innings against Colorado, and over his last three starts he's allowed 14 ER through 15 2/3 innings. For the season Kennedy has allowed 150 hits through 157 innings, but 29 of those hits have left the yard. He also owns a strikeouts/walks ratio of 158/50.

San Diego is 11-17 in Kennedy's starts, with the OVERS going 15-12.

In five starts this year against San Francisco Kennedy has allowed 16 runs – 11 earned – through 26 innings; the Padres lost three of those games, mainly because they got shut out in three of those games.

Bumgarner (18-8, 2.84) is 18-for-30 on quality starts, and four for his last five. Last Friday he held Arizona to one earned run through eight innings, although the Giants lost that game 2-0, and over his last five starts he's held foes to eight ER through 36 innings. On the season Bumsie has allowed 173 hits through 206 innings, walked 35 and whiffed 219, for a K/BB ratio of 6/1.

The Giants are 19-11 in Bumgarner's starts, with the OVERS going 15-13.

In four starts this season against San Diego Bumgarner has allowed seven runs through 26 2/3 innings; San Francisco only managed to split those four games,

 

Thursday's Batting Splits
San Francisco ranks third in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .327 team on-base percentage, and 10th with a .412 team slugging percentage.

San Diego, on the other hand, ranks 24th against left-handed pitching with .309 team OBP and 25th with a .370 team slugging percentage.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are now 43-28 in games played at Petco Park this season, which are averaging 8.4 runs per.

 

Giants-Padres Free Pick
Bumgarner gets the check mark in the pitching matchup, and San Francisco owns the better bullpen, despite of what happened Wednesday night. So we like the Giants for Thursday night, and we'll take a chance with the visitors on a run-line play.

MLB Pick: San Francisco -1.5 (+111) on the run line at Pinnacle