Giants vs. Astros MLB Picks on Run Totals: Hot Bats with McHugh-Heston Matchup

Steven Suarez

Tuesday, May 12, 2015 1:17 PM GMT

Collin McHugh and the Astros are sizable favorites for tonight's matchup with Chris Heston and the Giants. Who should we be backing with our MLB picks tonight?

Odds Overview
Right now we find the Astros listed at right around -160 to get the outright win. They've cooled off after a red-hot start, but they've still been a team to be reckoned with, and Collin McHugh has been solid so far this season.

The Giants can be locked in at a price of +150 or so, with Chris Heston set to get the assignment this evening. The game's total is currently trading at an even eight runs on the MLB betting odds board.

 

Houston Astros (McHugh)
After going 18-7 through their first 25 games and pleasantly surprising a lot of people, the Astros are starting to see a little regression now. They've dropped five of their previous seven matchups to fall to 20-12 on the season as they get set to tangle with the Giants for two games at home.

McHugh has enjoyed a rock solid start to his 2015 campaign, going 4-0 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in six starts. He's yet to have been knocked around and comes in having logged at least six innings in each of his last four assignments. 

In two home starts in 2015, McHugh has logged 12 and 2/3 innings, allowing 12 hits and five earned runs while recording a 14:2 K:BB ratio. Those two outings came against Seattle and Oakland and McHugh is set to face another tricky assignment against a disciplined San Francisco lineup tonight. 

 

San Francisco Giants (Heston)
Following a slow start, the Giants have turned things around and have been playing a lot better in recent weeks. They've gone a solid 7-3 over their past 10 games to improve to 16-16 this season. San Francisco swept the Angels, took two of three from San Diego and split the series 2-2 against Miami most recently.

Now the Giants head out on the road, where they've gone 5-7 so far this season. They'll be hoping Chris Heston will be able to rebound after a shellacking in his latest trip to the bump; he allowed 11 hits and five earned runs over five innings of work in a 9-1 loss at home to San Diego six days ago, which raised his ERA from 2.51 to 3.38. Heston owns a 1.39 WHIP and 29:10 K:BB ratio through 37 and 1/3 innings of work thus far.

We'll have to see if the right-hander can get any run support tonight, but early on the Giants offense has been stuttering a bit, ranking 29th in the MLB in total runs scored.

 

MLB Pick
Heston was tagged badly in his latest start and we think he could struggle quite a bit again tonight against a Houston team that posesses a town of power and speed.

Yes, the Astros strike out a ton, but they are capable of producing runs in a hurry, and Heston's awful showing last week can't have had a good effect on his confidence. If Houston's able to get things going early on, it could be another very long night for the right-hander. To boot, McHugh is going to have to be on point to shut down the Giants, who are patient at the plate and make pitchers work for each and every out.

As you can see, we don't have that much faith in either one of these starters tonight, which is why we're going to take the OVER as one of our MLB picks for Tuesday night. Many will look to the numbers these two hurlers have provided so far and think a low-scoring game is in store, but we look for regression to rear its ugly head and for the two offenses to win the night. Back the OVER.

MLB Pick: OVER 8 at Bovada