Giants & Vogelsong, Marlins & Latos ‘under’ is the MLB Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, June 30, 2015 3:27 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 30, 2015 3:27 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Tuesday.


The ‘under’ could have value Tuesday night in a matchup of two pitchers that have already had one fine start this year vs. tonight’s opponent when Ryan Vogelsong and the San Francisco Giants (42-35, 21-15 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Mat Latos and the Miami Marlins (31-46, 18-22 home) in the first game of a three-game series from Marlins Park in Miami, FL at 7:10 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Florida.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 7 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -101.


World Champions Seeking Division Title
The Giants are the defending World Champions, but remember that they won it all as a wild card last season. They have division title aspirations this year and they are only one-half game behind the first place Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West after taking two out of three games from the Colorado Rockies over the weekend.

The Marlins, on the other hand, have been major disappointments and they have already made a managerial change this year. And after improving for a while, they have now hit the skids again by being the losing MLB picks in six of their last seven games and nine of their last 11, and they are in fourth place in the National League East 11½ games behind the first place Nationals with only the worst team in baseball the Philadelphia Phillies keeping them out of last.


Vogelsong on a Roll
Vogelsong had a couple of solid seasons for the Giants even making the All-Star team in 2011, but he tailed off the last two years and is just 6-5 with a 4.05 ERA this season. However, he still occasionally goes on runs where he again flashes that All-Star form for brief periods, and he is on one of those nice rolls right now as he has tossed back-to-back scoreless outings vs. the Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres respectively.

First he held the Mariners scoreless while allowing just three hits with six strikeouts in 6.2 innings, and he then followed up that outing by shutting out the Padres over six innings and allowing only five hits last Wednesday. He now has a chance to continue that form vs. a team that he has always had success against.

Vogelsong is a perfect six-for-six lifetime in Quality Starts vs. the Marlins while posting a 1.89 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and yielding just a .206 batting average against them, and that includes his one start against them this year back home in San Francisco where he held the Fish to one run on four hits in seven innings.


Latos with Strong Peripherals
Now, Latos does not appear to be having a good year on the surface as he is just 2-5 with a 5.49 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. However, a closer look reveals very strong peripherals that may be pointing to Latos regressing back to the fine Major League pitcher he has always been, the pitcher that still owns a lifetime 3.47 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while in his seventh season in the big leagues.

You see, Latos has very good command numbers that clash with the ERA as he has 56 strikeouts vs. 22 walks in 62.1 innings, and he also has only six home runs allowed in 12 starts, helping lead to a 3.61 FIP that is closer to his career ERA and a better representation of his ability. The home runs allowed are especially noteworthy as he has cut down that number once escaping the launching pad at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati he formerly called home.

And there is no need to convince the Giants that Latos is better than his mainstream numbers as he pitched very well in his only appearance against them this year out west, where he allowed just one run in seven innings. That leaves Latos 4-3 but with a spiffy 2.11 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in his 12 career starts against San Francisco with 60 strikeouts vs. just 12 walks.


Loss of Stanton Hurts
Finally, the Marlins lost their biggest bat Giancarlo Stanton to a broken hand last week and they have been abysmal offensively without him, not that they were really any great shakes with him. Miami is batting .210 over the last 10 games overall while averaging 2.02 runs per game, and .190 while averaging a pathetic 1.23 runs in the last five contests! Also, the ‘under’ is 12-4-1 in the Marlins’ last 17 home games.

The combination of that anemic offense with a hot Vogelsong and a pitcher in Latos that is better than his ERA should all combine to produce a low scoring affair when San Francisco visits Miami on Tuesday.



MLB Pick: Giants, Marlins ‘under’ 7 (-101)

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