Giants Look To Bounce Back Against Reds When Returning To The Bay

Jake Peavy

Kevin Stott

Monday, July 25, 2016 2:06 PM GMT

Let’s look at some of the numbers and Trends, make a couple of MLB picks and theorize if there’s “No Place Like Home,” and that like most good teams, Los Gigantes are kind of hard to beat on their own sacred soil (29-17) next to the Pacific Ocean.

Cincinnati Reds vs. San Francisco Giants 
The Cincinnati Reds (38-60) and RHP Anthony DeSclafani (5-0) head to AT&T Park in San Francisco on Monday night to face the San Francisco Giants (58-40) and RHP Jake Peavy (5-8) in Game 1 of this 3-game NL series. Offshore oddsmakers have opened up the Giants as respectable -141 Road favorites—the Reds are +131 on the take-back—with Peavy scheduled to go at Heritage with the game’s Total (Runs) opening up at 7½ (Over -113) at Heritage and at 8 (Under -120) at TheGreek

The Run Line MLB odds here see San Francisco -1½ runs priced at +157 with the visiting Reds +1½ runs at -173 at Heritage. The scheduled Starters for Game 2 in this series on Tuesday (10:15 p.m. EDT/7:15 p.m. PDT) are RHP Matt Cain (1-6) for Los Gigantes and Cody Reed (0-4) for Los Rojos while in Game 3 on Wednesday afternoon (3:45 p.m. EDT/12:45 p.m. PDT), San Francisco is scheduled to send left-handed ace Madison Bumgarner (10-5) to the hill against Reds RHP Dan Straily (5-6).

 

Cincinnati Reds
The Cincinnati Reds (50/1 to win World Series at Betway) are at high of 50/1 to win the World Series that they won’t get to, but 200/1 to win the NL Central ( Betway) they won’t win, so, sometimes Odds—even from the same Sportsbook source—make about as much sense of changing the formula of a best-selling soft drink like 80 years after assuming world domination with your sugary and carbonated caffeine-carrying concoction. But weird happens on Earth and worrying about Reds Futures Book odds right now is like worrying about getting attacked by alligators in Antarctica. 

Anyway, on Sunday in the finale of a 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks in Cincinnati (200/1 to win NL Central at Betway), Reds Manager Bryan Price had a Starting Lineup of: CF Billy Hamilton, SS José Peraza, 1B Joey Votto, RF Jay Bruce, LF Adam Duvall, 2B Brandon Phillips, 3B Ivan De Jesus and C Ramon Cabrera with southpaw Brandon Finnegan in the No. 9 spot in the order. The Diamondbacks snapped a 3-game winning streak Cincinnati (5-11 L16 Monday games) had coming in with an 9-8 Win as Finnegan allowed 6 Runs (all Earned) on 7 Hits in 5.0 IP in the setback. Leadoff man Hamilton (2 Singles), Phillips (2 Singles) and Bruce (Single, 3-Run HR in 9th) were the only Reds batters with multiple hits in the Loss with Duvall providing 2 RBI and clean-up hitter Bruce 4 RBI.

 

San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants (6/1 to win World Series at WilliamHill) will be glad to be returning Home to The City By The Bay on Monday night after hitting the Road and getting swept in San Diego (3 games), again in Boston (2 games) and then losing 2 of 3 from the New York Yankees in The House That Ruth Built, losing 5-2 on Sunday to the Bronx Bombers after starter Jeff Samardzija allowed just 5 Runs (all Earned) on 8 Hits. Yet, despite going 1-7 on their Road Trip, Los Gigantes are still on top in the NL West, 3½ games over their hated rivals—the Los Angeles Dodgers (55-44)—who have gone 6-4 in their L10 and probably wish that they had made up some more ground in the NL West standings on the Giants present losing skid. 

In Sunday’s Loss, the Giants (1/5 to win NL West, Marathon) and Manager Bruce Bochy put out a Starting Lineup of CF Denard Span, LF Ángel Pagán, 1B Brandon Belt, DH Buster Posey, SS Brandon Crawford, 3B Conor Gillaspie, RF Mac Williamson, 2B Ramiro Pena and C Trevor Brown with RHP Jeff Samardzija (5.0 IP, 4 ER , 4 Hits) getting the Start for San Francisco (447-391, +56 Run Differential). The underrated Pagán went 3-for-4 with Single, Double and Triple, Posey went 2-for-4 with 2 RBI while Williamson went 2-for-4 with 2 Singles in the Loss which ended a Roadstand which showed the human side of this team. 

The Giants struggle in certain situations, no matter how much we canonize them and the Padres are always tough against San Francisco. And historic Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium are always tough places to visit for rare foes from the NL, like 3,000 miles away on another coast and 3 Time Zones away. Bettors best realize right now how happy the Giants (29-17 at Home) will be to be Home for this upcoming 7-game Homestand which has these three games against the Reds followed by a 4-game series in Frisco against Bryce Harper and the NL East-leading Washington Nationals (58-41).

 

Starting Pitchers Report Card
Cincinnati scheduled starting RHP Anthony DeSclafani (5-0, 2.50 ERA, 40 K’s, 1.21 WHIP) has pitched admirably this season, and having a perfect 5-0 mark, a 1.21 WHIP and allowing just 9 Walks in his L10 games is impressive, especially for a team with the 2nd-worst Record in the NL and the 3rd-worst in all of MLB. DeSclafani has W3 straight Starts, allowing 2, 3 and 3 ER in appearances against the Braves, Brewers and Cubs at Wrigley Field. And the highest ER the 26-year-old had in those L10 Starts is 3 (2, 3, 3, 2, 0, 2, 1, 1), so this kid is in a groove. Lifetime against the Giants, DeSclafani has seen limited Plate Appearances with Crawford (1-for-2), Brandon Belt (1-for-1) and Gregor Blanco (1-for-1, HR) all liking what they saw and Posey (0-for-2) and Span (0-for-5) hitless in minimal AB’s against him. 

Against scheduled Giants Starter Peavy (5-8, 5.15 ERA, 78 K’s, 1.40 WHIP) for the Reds, Phillips is hitting .500 (4-8) as is Adam Duvall (1-2) who Homered in one of his two ABs vs. Peavy. Votto (.222), Zack Cozart (.250), Tyler Holt (.000) and Bruce (.167) haven’t fared as well in their limited number of ABs against Peavy, who did pretty good in his last Start in Fenway, allowing just 4 Baserunners in 6 Innings but getting absolutely no Run-support in a 4-0 Loss on Tuesday. So with the red-hot Reds hurler DeSclafani coming in on a 21-Inning Walk-less Streak and off 6 straight Quality Starts, Peavy doing well in his last outing, it being (just another manic) Monday and both teams coming of a long Travel Night-Day (Sunday-Monday), this one could start sluggish and evolve into a Pitcher’s chess match-duel through 6 Innings or so if both settle in early the first time through the respective opposing team’s order.

 

San Francisco Weather Forecast, Trends, Megatrends, Final Wrap-Up and Picks
The Weather Channel forecast for San Francisco on Monday evening is calling for Partly Cloudy skies, a Low of 51°, with WSW Winds of 11 mph, so it will be pretty chilly at AT&T Park in the bigger forecast and context of how warm it has been the L10 days in the lower 48 United States. With this being the first game of series returning Home after a disappointing Padres sweep in San Diego and those cross country East Coast interleague Red Sox and Yankees series, the Giants will simply be glad to be Home and know they lost some ground, Confidence and need to quickly keep that room between themselves and the Dodgers in the NL West.

Trend-wise (from Covers.com), Cincinnati is 5-2 in its L7 games and 5-0 in the L5 Game 1 Starts by DeSclafani but the Redlegs are a dismal 18-54 their L72 against a team with a Winning Record (25%) and 25-67 their L92 Road games against a team with a Winning Record (27.2%). Not good. Unless losing is the ultimate point of playing the game. It’s not. San Francisco (1-7 L8) is 19-7 in its L26 Home games at AT&T Park, 38-18 their L56 against a RHP Starter and 25-10 its L35 when an opponent allows 5 Runs or more the previous game. The Giants are also 17-7 the L24 against teams with a Losing Record, 13-4 their L17 after scoring 2 Runs or less the previous game and San Francisco is 21-7 in Peavy’s L28 Starts against a teams with a Losing Record. And the Reds certainly have one.

Some Totals Trends: The Under is 3-0-3 in the L6 DeSclafani Starts, 6-0-3 the L9 Game 1 Starts by DeSclafani and 3-1-1 the L5 Cincy games on Grass. The Over is 5-0 the L5 Reds games played on a Monday, 19-7-3 the L29 Reds games when an Opponent has scored 2 or Less Runs in their Previous Game (SF, 2 on Sunday) and the Over is 13-5-3 the L21 Reds games against teams with a Winning Record. In short, this is a tough scheduling spot for the Reds who have actually played the Giants very well the L3 years here in San Francisco, going 5-2 in the L7 (+3.5 Units) while the Over has also been a profitable 5-2 (+3.4 Units). Lean first to the Under as MLB pick because of perceived (Baseball) Pace and the fact both Pitcher’s are feeling good about themselves, with a slightly smaller play on the Giants who will be glad to be back Home aiming for McCovey Cove.

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Giants 4 Reds 2
Free MLB picks: Giants -141 at Heritage, Under 8 -117 at Pinnacle
MLB RECORD SEASON TO DATE: 19-17-2

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