Giants at Great Value is a No-Brainer Pick vs. Cardinals

Charles Stark

Tuesday, August 18, 2015 11:49 AM GMT

Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2015 11:49 AM GMT

This is a fantastic matchup of two really good starters and two really good teams. But value wise there is some good plus money here on the Giants to go ahead and take a shot with them. This is a very important series for both teams.

Odds
MLB odds makers came out making the Giants about a +130 underdog, and for me that is some solid value. The best odds on them right now is at +131 at Pinnacle sports, but you might want to wait until first pitch because I think the public is going to jump on the Cardinals. That is my best estimate considering they're playing at home and in a good bounce back spot for their starting pitcher. There is a slight possibility that people will see the value on the Giants and take them, in either case any plus money on San Francisco in my opinion is good value.

 

San Francisco Giants
Mike Leake takes the mound with a 3.52 ERA, 1.17 whip, 95 strikeouts, and a 9-6 record. He is just coming back from injury after coming over from Cincinnati, and for the Giants he just had one solid start allowing two earned runs against the Rangers. He seems to be healthy and over his last 10 starts he has been extremely tough except for one rough outing against the Twins back in late June. Against the Cardinals he has pitched very well in two starts allowing just two total earned runs for a 1.13 ERA and 0.56 whip. In road starts this year he has a 2.33 ERA and a 0.92 whip. The guy is a good veteran pitcher who should be pretty fired up to be in a playoff race, I don't expect him to completely shut down the Cardinals but he should keep them at least in check.

The Giants rank eighth in runs scored per game at 4.41, sixth in OPS at .742, and lead the league in hitting at .271. They are group of good veteran players who understand the magnitude of games like this against teams that are leading their divisions. Offensively, when they are away from San Francisco all their statistics go up and they are arguably the best road hitting team in baseball hitting .273 on the road.

Don't miss this capper's MLB pick for tonight's Giants/Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals
Lance Lynn gets the start for St. Louis with a 2.95 ERA, 1.31 whip, 137 strikeouts, and at 9-7 record. As mentioned he is in a bounce back spot today after having arguably his worst start of the year allowing three earned runs and seven runs total along with six hits against the Pirates in less than an inning. Like Leake he is a solid major league starter and I look for him to have a pretty good outing today. At home in general he has pitched well with a 2.51 ERA and a whip of 1.21. Again, also like Leake, I expect him to not completely shut down the Giants but pitched pretty well.

The Cardinals rank 20th in runs scored per game at 3.98, 16th in OPS at .711, and 12th in batting average hitting .254 as a team. Naturally both their OPS and team batting average go up in St. Louis, but surprisingly their run total per game goes down. On the offensive end statistically they are good but not great, they simply just continue to find ways to win. They are the type a team where you can almost throw out all the statistics, but against the Giants I think they will have their hands full.

The Cardinals just know how to win and have all the intangibles you can't quantify, as well they simply just know how to win. The issue today though is that they are facing a Giants team with those same type of intangibles and in the last few years the Giants have got the better of them. Value wise this is a no-brainer for me and San Francisco is a great play on the plus money line, back them with confidence.

MLB Pick: Giants +131 at Pinnacle

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