Get In The Game With Saturday's MLB Picks of the Day for May 13th

Angels pitcher Ricky Nolasco

Mark Lathrop

Saturday, May 13, 2017 1:08 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper is having a fantastic May, and his analytical style gets more powerful with greater sample sizes to look at for trends. Read on as Mark Lathrop breaks down two pitching matchups on Saturday for wagering value.

     Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins

 

Solid pitching splits suggest that the Marlins can take advantage of this pitching matchup with Julio Teheran. Our MLB handicapper breaks down this matchup between the basement teams in the NL East to find wagering value.

Julio Teheran is struggling this year for the Braves, putting up a 4.69 ERA and a troubling 30/20 K/BB rate. This doesn’t look to improve on Saturday in Miami, as almost their entire roster has hit Teheran well in their careers. Marcell Ozuna (.417 BAA), Christian Yelich (.324 BAA), Martin Prado (.370 BAA), Dee Gordon (.304 BAA), and Justin Bour (.308 BAA) should all feel comfortable at the plate with Teheran on the mound. Giancarlo Stanton has struggled, but with Teheran coming in with that many road mines to dodge he could have an off game and the Marlins still be ok.

Edinson Volquez has had a rough patch, but I’ll chalk that up to the thumb injury that landed him on the 10-day DL. He’s walked a ton of batters in his last four starts. He has allowed only a .235 batting average at home though, so I give him the edge here over Teheran. Coming off of injury though I’d suggest that he is likely on a pitch count, putting Miami’s bullpen and their 2.88 ERA at home into action. I’ll back that prospect and the Marlins at -125 on the moneyline, and also take the Over of 8.5 for insurance as it is likely that one of these pitchers has a dud on Saturday.

 

Free MLB Pick: Miami -121 & Over 8.5 (-105)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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    Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels

 

Our MLB handicapper digs deeper into season split trends that are forming for the starters in this game between the Tigers and Angels. Read on as his analysis leads us to a surefire winner.

Daniel Norris and the Detroit Tigers match up with Ricky Nolasco and the Los Angeles Angels on Saturday night, and both of these pitchers look to get hit hard in this game. On the outside, it looks like Norris is pitching ok on the season, having put up a decent 3.75 FIP even after a .356 BABIP. However, tight rope walking on a .293 batting average against and 1.77 WHIP will not end well for the left-hander, and his K-BB% has dropped to just 6.7% after putting up a 16.2% mark last year.

Ricky Nolasco comes into this game with a 5.29 FIP over seven starts and 39.2 innings pitched. My concern for Nolasco in this game is that he is allowing righties to hit .291 against him, and the Tigers are stacked on that side of the plate. He will likely be in jams all night long, then it is just hit sequencing and luck to get runs across the plate for Detroit. I don’t trust either pitcher in this spot to succeed, leading to my MLB pick of Over 8.5 currently listed at -100. 

 

Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-100)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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