Gallardo Holds Great Value as Dog Sunday: Rangers vs. Astros MLB Pick

Charles Stark

Sunday, July 19, 2015 12:17 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 19, 2015 12:17 PM UTC

I'm going to grab some value today and back the Texas Rangers as they take on the Houston Astros. It makes perfect sense for the Astros to be favored today but I really think this a much tighter pitching matchup than the odds makers are making this one out to be. On top of this fact is that neither of these teams are playing particularly well right now in this game is more of a coin toss. Because of those two main factors I will gladly back the value in this contest.

MLB odds
MLB odds makers have come out making the Texas Rangers around +140 underdog. With the pitching matchup, like I mentioned, it does make sense to make the Astros the favorite in this spot with the odds on favorite to win the Cy Young on the mound, the better record, and that they are playing at home. Still, for me the value is with the Rangers and the best odds I have found are at 5Dimes sports book at +142. My best assessment is that this line is going to go down before first pitch so I would grab it early, but honestly with Dallas Keuchel getting the start I might be off a bit on this assessment.

Yovani Gallardo gets the call for the Texas Rangers and has had a fantastic first half of the season with a 2.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, surprisingly though he only has a record of 7-8. He pitched okay against Houston once this year allowing two runs in just over five innings of work. What I like about him in this matchup today is that in the last month he has been absolutely lights out. Since the beginning of June in his last eight starts he has allowed a total of six earned runs, and went four straight games in that stretch not allowing any. The eight year veteran has always been a good major league pitcher and getting some value on him I think is a good way to go. For the Astros Dallas Keuchel will get the start and has been arguably the best pitcher in the American League so far this season. He comes in with a 2.23 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and was rewarded for his stellar first half with the start in the All-Star game. He has been extremely good at home, but again we are talking about value, and since the beginning of June when compared to Gallardo his numbers are not as good having allowed 18 runs in his last eight starts and six in his last two starts over 13 innings. At the end of it all both of these pitchers are solid but I will gladly take the value on a good pitcher against a team that has been struggling no matter who is on the mound.

The Astros have been struggling at the plate in their last several games but had some nice at-bats yesterday and battled hard to get back in the game with the Rangers. Houston is ranked eighth in the league in runs scored per game and the Rangers 13th,and in OPS the Astros rank 10th with the Rangers rank 13th. These are both middle tiered decent hitting teams but the disparity between them is not that large.

From coming into the break to the last two games both these teams have been struggling overall. This next month is crucial for both of them but the value goes with the Rangers today and I will be backing them on the plus money line.

MLB Picks: Bet Rangers at BetOnline

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