From Large Dogs to Even Odds: Mariners vs. Padres Betting Line

Mark Lathrop

Wednesday, July 1, 2015 2:14 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jul. 1, 2015 2:14 PM UTC

Our MLB Handicapper nailed the first game in the Mariners-Padres series, predicting a strong Seattle pitching performance. Let's see if he can keep the ball rolling with Wednesday's MLB picks.

Mariners vs. Padres
The Seattle Mariners continue their short two-game set with the San Diego Padres on Wednesday night; and let’s just cut to the chase Mike Montgomery made me look like a genius last night. The rookie pitched a one hit complete game shutout en route to a 5-0 victory over the Padres, being in complete command the entire time. The league definitely hasn’t figured him out yet, and now with his ERA down to 1.62, we should expect the baseball betting public to start tailing him as well.  We were fortunate to find the value with the contrarian play against the public last night. I’m 6-3-1 in the last ten games to finish up June so let’s start July with another contrarian MLB pick.

Another pitcher that has had a strong run of late is the Mariners’ Taijuan Walker. Winner of four straight decisions, Walker has found his command over the last month and has a stellar 44/3 K/BB ratio in his last six starts and zero walks in his last three. You will find yourself in good situations more often than not when you are able to command the strike zone this way. He has given up a few long balls in the last two starts to big names, but they were all solo shots. Walker has lowered his ERA over seven consecutive starts and looks to continue that streak here against the Padres. He took a losing decision against the Padres after giving up only 2 ER and 4 hits in 6 IP in his interleague start at Safeco Field on May 13th.

San Diego pitcher, James Shields, wishes he were on the run that Taijuan Walker was on. Shields was rocked in his last time out to the tune of 7 ER in 4 IP against the San Francisco Giants on June 25th.  Although his strikeout numbers and basic peripheral stats continue to be at his career norms, Shields has pitched in four straight losing efforts and his ERA has risen to 4.24. More importantly, if he ended the season with his WHIP at its current 1.33, it would be the highest that statistic has been since 2010. Shields pitched against Walker in that game on May 13th and won, twirling 6 innings of one-run ball while striking out nine.

That prior game in May is likely why the Padres opened as favorites at home on the money line at -146. This line has swiftly moved towards the Seattle side, and can now be found at -114 at the same book just 8 hours later. The O/U total definitely respects both pitchers and the park, being set at a low 6.5 runs at multiple books (although it has touched 7 at Heritage).


Baseball Betting Verdict
Although I’d like to give credit to Mike Montgomery for all of last night’s performance for my ego, the reality is that the San Diego offense had a lot to do with it as well. I’m looking for them to struggle tonight against the tough Taijuan Walker, and even though Shields will rack up some K’s tonight, I don’t think it will be enough. The line is moving against public consensus according to my sources, which tells me that the big dogs are coming in on Seattle. 

MLB Picks:  Go against consensus and take the Mariners in a close one tonight

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