From Hot Chalk to PK Odds, Tigers Still The Best Bet vs. Blue Jays

Darin Zank

Friday, July 3, 2015 1:46 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 3, 2015 1:46 PM UTC

Former divsion rivals get re-acquainted when the Tigers and Blue Jays open a three-game series at Comerica Park Friday night. Detroit has played 13 OVERS in a row; will they get a 14th tonight?

Blue Jays-Tigers Friday Betting Odds
As of mid-Friday morning the best line we could find on Detroit and Anibal Sanchez was the -106 offered at YouWager, while Toronto and Drew Hutchison were getting +102 at Heritage. And most books were listing a total of eight runs on tonight's game, although there were a few 8.5's out there.

Also, BetOnline was chalking the Tigers at -160 to win this series, with the Jays getting +140 as the dogs.


The Situation
Detroit just got swept three games at home by Pittsburgh this week, losing Thursday 8-4. But just before that the Tigers had won two straight series, and five of seven games. At 39-39 Motor City's Kitties are six games behind in the AL Central, but only 2.5 games off the pace in the race for the second American League wild-card spot.

Toronto, meanwhile, just dropped three of four games at home to Boston, losing Thursday 12-6. But prior to that the Jays had won three of four series, and seven of 11 games. At 42-39 Toronto sits just one game out of first place in the AL East, and one game back of that second AL wild-card slot.

This is the first meeting between these former division rivals this season; last season the Jays took five of six games from the Tigers, with the totals going 4-2.


Friday's Pitching Match-Up
Sanchez (6-7, 4.63), by our tough accounting, is nine-for-16 on quality starts this season, and three for his last four. Last Friday he gave up four runs in seven innings against the White Sox, and over his last four starts he's allowed seven runs through 30 2/3 innings. On the season Sanchez has given up fewer hits, 95, than innings pitched, 105, but 18 of those hits have gone long-ball. Detroit is 7-9 in Sanchez' starts, with the OVERS going 9-6.

Last year Sanchez started twice against Toronto, allowing three earned runs through 11 2/3 innings; the Tigers split those two games.

Hutchison (8-1, 4.99) is only five-for-16 on quality starts this year, but just two outs away from being two for his last three. Last Sunday he held Texas to one unearned run through 5 2/3 innings, and three starts ago he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Mets. So since getting bombed by Boston back on June 12 Hutch has allowed just three runs through 16 1/3 innings.

On the season Hutchison has allowed 99 hits in 88 innings, but his K/BB ratio is pretty good, at 81/26. The Jays are 11-6 in Hutch's starts, and with help from some good run support the OVERS have gone 10-6.

In his only career start against the Tigers, last June, Hutchison tossed seven innings of shutout ball, allowing just three hits, whiffing seven, in a 5-3 Toronto victory.

Looking for more betting action? Check out our MLB picks of the day!

Friday's Batting Splits
Detroit ranks third in the Majors this season with a .329 team on-base percentage against right-handed pitching, while Toronto ranks ninth against righties at .322.


Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Comerica Park this year are 21-19 on the OVERS, averaging 8.9 runs.


Friday Night Free MLB Picks
We'll give Sanchez a slight edge in the pitching match-up, and Detroit owns a slight edge with the sticks. So we'll take the Tigers for tonight. Also, neither of these bullpens do a whole lot for us, and Detroit has played 13 OVERS in a row. So we're thinking OVER.

MLB Picks: Tigers -106 at YouWager and OVER 8.5 runs (+100) at Bovada

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