Friday's Underdog Value Pick Lies in Marlins +110 vs. Padres

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, July 24, 2015 12:34 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 24, 2015 12:34 PM UTC

The Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres continue their 4-game weekend set with Game 2. Find out how we're playing this matchup with our MLB picks.

Miami Marlins (Haren) vs. San Diego Padres (Cashner)  10:10 ET
The Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres continue their 4-game weekend set with Game 2 scheduled for 10:10 ET, Friday evening at Petco Park. Miami won Game 1 of the series on Thursday night (4-0) as Koehler bested Ross. Tons of value here with the visiting underdog, who has the better pitcher and is one of our BUY teams, playing one of our SELL teams.  

Far more was expected out of the 44-52 Padres after a remake of their offensive roster in the off-season. But an inspection of their OPS numbers, which are both in the bottom 8 of MLB in both batting and pitching, indicate the San Diego fortunes’ are due for a continued hit.  A recent 5-0 run was clearly a mirage, as they have currently lost 3 consecutive contests, in which they have scored a total of only 4 runs on 13 hits.  At home, they are a sub-.500 team at 21-25.  Cashner has underachieved as well!  San Diego has won only 6 of 18 Cashner starts, in which he has a 3-10 record and a 4.27 ERA.  In 8 most recent starts, Cashner is 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA.  Pitching in spacious Petco Park has not helped, for it is at home where the Padres have won just 1 of 7 Cashner starts, in which he has posted a 1.41 WHIP.  

Miami has a better batting OPS than San Diego, as well as pitching OPS. Yet, they are 3 games worse than the Padres in the standings. Those numbers indicate a BUY sign on Miami, who has played a bit better since ace, Fernandez, returned to the rotation (3-1 in his starts). Haren, however, has been a solid part of the rotation the entire season.  He has been outstanding on the road, where he has posted a 1.06 WHIP.  Followers of my WHIP theory (play ON and UNDER any pitcher who has a home or road WHIP of 1.10 or less; play AGAINST and OVER any home or road pitcher who has a 1.55 or higher home or road WHIP) went 10-4 last night for a 2-night record of 22-9.  This theory remains right around 60% for the season.  Marlins have been subpar on the road this season with a 17-32 mark, but have won 3 consecutive road games, affording them a bit of confidence in this spot.  

Easy call for this bureau with the better team and the better pitcher, with a sub-.110 road WHIP, as meaningful underdog.

MLB Pick: Take Miami Marlins (Haren) +110 Bet365

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