Friday's Underdog MLB Pick: Back Cashner & Padres +115 Over Dodgers for Series Opener in San Diego

Charles Stark

Friday, April 24, 2015 11:59 AM GMT

Friday's top underdog MLB pick of the day goes to the San Diego Padres, as they face the Dodgers who are slight favorites in MLB odds with Zack Grienke on the mound against Andrew Cashner.

Excellent Pitching Matchup
MLB odds makers opened this game up with the Dodgers a small favorite of around -110 to the Padres who are at about +105.  I think there is good value though on taking the Padres here in a game that they have a good chance to win in what should be a tight game.  Just by going off of statistics it is easy to see we have a really good matchup here with Greinke vs. Cashner.  Greinke comes in this contest 2-0 with a 1.83 ERA and .71 WHIP, as well as the bigger name.  He is in my opinion one of the premier pitchers in the game and has some really solid career numbers with a 3.53 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.  Grienke has also already faced the Padres this season and allowed only one run in six solid innings of work.  There are not a lot of weak spots to find in his game, but one that stands out is he does pitch much better at home than on the road.  In the last three years his home ERA is a stellar 2.56 ERA and batters have hit for a .217 average.  On the road though those numbers really do go up, in that same time span his road ERA is 3.36 and batters have hit for an average of .269.

The Padres' Andrew Cashner is starting to become a little better known in the league to casual fans, but the guy can be lights out.  On the year he comes in with 2.65 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, but he has not allowed an earned run in his last two outings.  Career wise he has a 3.23 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.  He is a very solid major league pitcher and at home in the last three years he has a 2.11 ERA and is only allowing batters a .215 batting average.  We see great value with MLB Picks today on him even if it is at a small plus money line.  Cashner, like Greinke, has faced this specific opponent once already this year.  He did not pitch well and I am looking for him to bounce back today.

 

Runs on the Board
The Dodgers right now lead the league in slugging %, but Padres are not far behind ranked 7th.  These two teams both have been doing well offensively and are very comparable.  In the main offensive categories they are both in the top ten and the Padres rank higher than the Dodgers in runs per game, hits per game, and batting average.  In short though, both teams can put runs on the board. Should be a fun one to watch and I am backing the Padres in this spot.

MLB Picks: Padres +115 at Pinnacle