Friday’s Top Plays on Run Line MLB Odds with Pitching Preview

Doug Upstone

Friday, June 12, 2015 1:52 PM GMT

Friday, Jun. 12, 2015 1:52 PM GMT

Analyzing the MLB odds with the intention of making money is not easy but we have found three potential run line choices which could very well prove to be profitable.

Twins vs. Rangers: Texas Looks to Regain Momentum
You knew it would happen eventually, the Rangers would cool off and they did in dropping series to Oakland and have fallen three times in their last four games. But all is not lost, because the team they facing, Minnesota, just got the comeuppance, being swept at home by Kansas City, causing Torii Hunter to have a wardrobe malfunction.

As a MLB handicapper, I thought Wandy Rodriguez (3-2, 3.25 ERA) was finished the way he pitched in Pittsburgh. Yet somehow he’s revitalized his career, maybe he likes being back in the Lone Star State, and over his past four starts has an ERA of 2.55, all Texas victories.

All told the Twins were only 1-5 on the homestand and maybe a change in venue will help, however, not convinced Tommy Milone (2-1, 4.55) is the right guy to turn Minnesota around with a 6.75 ERA in his past three outings.

Wagerweb.ag, home of the guaranteed next day payouts, has Texas at +155 on the RL (-1.5). In doing more research on MLB odds we find home teams with a RL range of (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160), scoring 4.5 or fewer runs a game, against an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game, are 70-28 against the run line since 1997. Saddle up with the Rangers.

MLB Picks: Rangers -1.5 +160

 

Phillies vs. Pirates: Keystone State Battle Expected to be One-Sided
The ebb and flow of sports and life takes us on many journeys and Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are in very different places than they were a few years ago. The Phillies were the best team in the National League for several years and the Pirates were among the worst for a couple decades. Those roles have been flipped and tonight this comes into play.

Philadelphia came into this season finally acknowledging they needed to rebuild and other than Cole Hamels, they pieced together a starting staff with many old pieces. On Monday, the Phillies signed Kevin Correia from the San Francisco’s Triple-A team and the 34-year will start tonight for his new team. This will be Correia’s sixth different big league team since 2008 (including 2011-12 with Pittsburgh) and he’s coming off a 17-loss campaign.

Though Jeff Locke (3-3, 5.37) has hardly been a pillar of strength, his ERA is lower at PNC Park at 3.52 with the Bucs winning four of six outings. He will face a Phils team that is 7-23 on the road, losing by 2.3 runs a game. Using Pittsburgh for sports picks on the MLB odds money line is very chalky at -180, however, there is decent value on them on the RL at +110 (-1.5) and with the Pirates 18-4 after two or more consecutive home games, winning by 2.2 RPG, this is the right choice in this matchup.

MLB Picks: Pirates -1.5 +110

 

Royals vs. Cardinals: Cardinals Earn Revenge in Show Me State Opener
A look at the standings today finds the two best teams in the majors residing in the state of Missouri and that has not happened this late in the season since 1944 when the Cardinals and St. Louis Browns did battle. It seems like the Cardinals always field a quality team and this year is no different and they face their cross-state rivals in the I-70 series for a second time in 2015, having lost a series at Kansas City last month.

St. Louis has the lowest ERA in baseball at 2.71 and Jamie Garcia (1-3, 2.67) has made a strong contribution to that low figure since coming off the DL. Garcia would have a better record with more run support and he might receive it with his teammates facing struggling Yordano Ventura (3-5, 4.62 ERA). In his last six starts Ventura has 7.50 ERA and opposing team’s hitters in slots 2 thru 4 on the lineup card are batting .334 against him this season.

In these teams last 11 confrontations, the outcome has been by two or more runs and with the Cards 22-7 at Busch Stadium and 21-4 the past three years after a day off, winning by 2.5 RPG, I’ll place my MLB picks on the +185 RL odds (-1.5) seeking a nice payout.

MLB Picks: Cardinals -1.5 +185

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