Friday's Starting Pitchers with the Edge for Your MLB Picks

Ross Benjamin

Friday, September 19, 2014 12:31 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 19, 2014 12:31 PM GMT

Today’s handicapping article examines two very competitive matchups loaded with MLB betting value: Brewers vs. Padres and Giants vs. Padres.

Brewers vs. Pirates 7:05 PM ET
Milwaukee will send Yavoni Gallardo to the mound for tonight’s opening game of a critical 3-games series for the Brewers. Unfortunately the veteran right-hander enters tonight in bad form over his last 3-starts, with a large 7.36 ERA, a 1.84 WHIP, and has gone 0-3 against the money. The good news for Gallardo is that he’s gone 18-6 against the money in his career versus the Pirates, with a stellar 2.53 ERA, including a 2.97 ERA in 5-starts in 2014 versus Pittsburgh. Gallardo has also been terrific over his last 5-starts on the road as evidenced by an excellent 1.91 ERA during those outings.

The Pirates will depend on southpaw Jeff Locke to carry the mail tonight. Locke has seen his last 3-starts go over the total while posting a lofty 4.70 ERA.  Locke has seen just 5 of his 19-starts this season stay under the total, including just 2 of his 13 during night games. Locke has gone 7-3 against the money at home in 2014 with a solid 3.60 ERA.

 

Advantage
This one was an extremely tough call especially when considering the importance of this game for both teams. Both pitchers send out a mixed signal in my eyes pertaining to this matchup. Based on the fact the Pirates have red-hot bats right now, are the hotter team, and are an outstanding 48-29 (.623) at home in 2014, I’ve come to this conclusion. In an otherwise close starting pitching matchup, the smallest of my leans goes to Locke of the Pirates over Gallardo of the Brewers for one of today's MLB picks.

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Giants vs. Padres 10:10 PM ET
The Giants Tim Hudson has been downright horrible over his last 3-starts. During that time, he posted a monster 10.50 ERA, a huge 2.08 WHIP, and proceeded to go 0-3 against the money. The good news is that Hudson has been very good in 4-starts versus the Padres in 2014. In those 4-outings he’s posted a very good 2.97 ERA, a superb 0.99 WHIP, and compiled a 9:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Hudson failed to walk a hitter in his previous start, and that’s significant. He’s gone an outstanding 54-20 (.730) against the money in his career following a start in which he issued no walks.

The Padres Odrisamer Despaigne defected from Cubs this year, spent a very brief time in the minors, and was thrown right into the fires by the Padres. He’s certainly held his own in the big leagues. Although it’s worth noting, that he’s been much better at pitcher friendly Petco Park in San Diego. He’s gone 5-2 against the money at home this season with a stellar 2.11 ERA, and that includes 3-0 in the last 3 at Petco with an excellent 0.86 ERA.

 

Advantage
I’m sure there are many of you out there that would fail to realize, the Padres are actually 42-32 at home this season. Unfortunately, the next chapter of that book reads as San Diego being a dismal 28-49 on the road. The way Despaigne has dominated at home, and how poorly Tim Hudson has been in recent starts, I’m going to give a slight betting edge to the Padres pitcher for this sports pick at 5Dimes.

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