Friday's MLB Over/Under Picks: Trends & Southpaws

Ross Benjamin

Friday, July 10, 2015 2:49 PM GMT

Our MLB consultant takes us through his two top totals selections on Friday’s card. Find out why he likes the totals for Reds/Marlins and Angels/Marlins!

Reds (Leake) vs. Marlins (Phelps) 7:10 PM ET
Mike Leake has pitched very well on the road this season, posting a stellar 2.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in eight starts. Leake has been absolutely dominant in four starts versus the Marlins since 2013 with an excellent 1.01 ERA. The Reds have gone under the total in each of their previous four games, and there was a paltry average of 4.8 runs combined scored per contest. Cincinnati is averaging 2.1 runs per game and hitting a dismal .228 as a team during their previous seven contests.

David Phelps has been much better at home than on the road this season. Phelps has posted a superb 2.53 ERA, and also compiled a better than 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio during his five starts at home. The Marlins bullpen has a very good 2.77 ERA at home in 2015. Miami is averaging a poor 2.4 runs per game and hit .227 as a team over their previous seven. They’ve hit just 70 home runs on the season, and 47 (38.6%) of those were by Giancarlo Stanton who’s currently on the disabled list.

These teams have seen all four of their meetings go under the total this season. I like that trend to continue in Friday’s game, and one of my MLB picks  will be reflective of that prediction. 5Dimes offers the best price for a wager in that regard.

MLB Pick: Reds and Marlins under 7.5 (-120) at 5Dimes.

 

Angels (Santiago) vs. Mariners (Montgomery) 10:10 PM ET
Hector Santiago has displayed exceptional form during his last three starts, posting a microscopic 0.90 ERA and 0.60 WHIP. The Angels southpaw has been consistently good all season with a shining 2.49 ERA in sixteen starts. Santiago was sharp in his one start versus the Mariners this year, allowing only 1 earned run on 3 hits while walking just 2 in 7.0 innings. The Angels will also be facing a southpaw starting pitcher (Montgomery) tonight, and they’ve gone 15-5-1 under the total in that role.

The Mariners southpaw Mike Montgomery has been brilliant in his last three starts with a miniscule 0.38 ERA, and it included two complete game shutouts. Montgomery has posted an excellent 1.62 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in seven starts this season. Seattle has averaged only 3.1 runs per game and hit a less than impressive .235 as a team in 19 outings versus a southpaw starting pitcher.

I like this game to be a low scoring affair, and my wager will be made at 5Dimes based on their price at the time of this writing.

MLB Pick: Angels and Mariners under 7.0 (+105) at 5Dimes.