Friday's Free Baseball Picks of the Day: May 26th

Twins pitcher Hector Santiago in action

Mark Lathrop

Friday, May 26, 2017 2:13 PM GMT

Friday, May. 26, 2017 2:13 PM GMT

Our handicapper, Mark Lathrop, is leaving for a mountaineering expedition for the weekend. He still finds two games on the way out of town worthy to be the Friday MLB Picks of the Day!

[/]{"component":"video", "type":"youtube", "url":"https://www.youtube.com/embed/PHAUGaoVnkU", "videoSize":"Large" }[/]   Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins 

 

Both of these teams have nearly identical records in the win column, yet the Twins have fewer losses. Our handicapper expects that to continue on Friday night as this weekend series starts in Minneapolis.

Coming off of a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, the Twins got an off day before hosting the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night. Tampa Bay comes in with no rest, but a dominated performance by starter Matt Andriese in a 4-0 win over the Los Angeles Angels. The Rays will face Hector Santiago, who has been pretty steady this season even after getting rocked two games ago for 6 earned runs in 2.2 innings at Cleveland. Santiago has done a good job of keeping the ball in the yard, only picking up a 9.7% HR/FB rate through 50.0 innings pitched. He has put up a bad split against left-handers and has been tough on righties, allowing a .500 batting average against southpaws and a .210 average against righties. That is a bit skewed; however, as Santiago has face ten times more right-handers than left-handers. Santiago is also very good at home and has accrued a 3.07 ERA in that situation over 29.1 innings pitched on the season.

Minnesota will face Chris Archer of the Rays, who although is 3-3 on the season has pitched very well with a 3.07 FIP over 64.2 innings pitched. He’s had issues with walks on the road though and has a 21/15 K/BB rate in that situation and a 4.74 ERA. Archer also struggles against left-handers and allows a .270 BAA against them over 25 innings pitched. These are two quality pitchers with flaws to take advantage of, and in this instance, the market is putting too much of a discount on the hot home team. I’ll be taking Minnesota as the home run line underdog here at a reasonable -130 price.

 

Free MLB Pick: Minnesota +1.5 (-130)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3141030, "sportsbooksIds":[238,19,1275,123,180], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

  Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers

 

The old and the new collide in Milwaukee with this pitching matchup. Our MLB handicapper like both starters and believes there is value on the low side of the available total.

Arizona has been very hot on offense this season, but they will face a crafty right-hander on Friday night that could give them some trouble. Junior Guerra comes off of the DL for Milwaukee in this game to make the start, and the Brewers hope that he can return to his 2016 form. Guerra did a great job last year limiting home runs and put up an FIP of 3.71. His BAA of .211 really stands out in 121.2 innings of work in 2016, anything close to that in 2017 would be a smashing success.

The Diamondbacks counter with Zack Godley, who started the year in AAA very well and has carried over his success to the major leagues. Godley has put up a 3.66 FIP over 4 starts on the year and has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start. Like Guerra, Godley’s batting average allowed runs very well - .191 over his first 25.2 innings pitched. As I like both pitcher’s chances to be successful, I’m going to take the Under of 9 runs as one of my Friday MLB Picks of the Day.

 

Free MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3141300, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,300,93,1096], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here