We have been on fire with our MLB prop picks over the last couple of weeks. Today we're back once again with some valuable player props from Bovada sportsbook for this Friday night.
David Ortiz O/U 2.5 Runs, hits and RBI’s
I really wanted to attack Michael Saunders against Mike Pelfry tonight, but the sharps working at Bovada have put him in a battle with Victor Martinez tonight. On top of that, the MLB odds have Saunders favored over Martinez at -125, so instead, I am going to attack David Ortiz, who at 2 ½ runs, hits and RBI’s, can cash you an even money ticket on the over tonight as the Red Sox host the Rays at Fenway.
Ortiz has crushed right-handed pitching this season. He owns a .359 average, an astronomical .483 wOBA and nearly half of the times he makes contract against a righty this season, it is hard to hit and in the air. He could cash you a winning ticket with one swing of the bat, and that’s not to stay he can’t cash the over by just getting on base a few times and scoring once.
Ortiz is also hitting .375 in 32 at-bats with two home runs and 15 RBI’s against Archer in his career. Considering how well he has been against bot Archer and right-handers in general, Bovada should have these odds at -110 or -115, not +100. It’s simple tonight, the MLB Pick is to take the over with the future Hall of Famer, Big Papi.
Free MLB Pick: OVER 2.5 (+100)
Jose Fernandez O/U 8.5 strikeouts
Jose Fernandez and the Marlins are nearly a 1/3 favorite at home tonight against Dan Straily and the Cincinnati Reds. This is obviously a bet that no one can take reasonably and in a sound mind, but if you want a piece of the domination Fernandez is about to lay on the Reds, his strikeout total is as soft as baby skin tonight.
At only 8 ½ all Fernandez needs to do tonight is get through seven innings. He is averaging 13 strikeouts per nine innings, and I think we can chalk up his last start to being an anomaly. His last nine starts before getting blown up by the Braves he went at least six or seven innings and had an average strikeout total of 10.1.
When you consider that the Reds rank 19th in overall strikeout rate against right-handers at 22.3 percent, this is almost a must play here. If you add on that the odds for the over are also at even money, this is one of the better values on the board here tonight. Fernandez also has a 44.4 strikeout rate against right-handers this season. Outside of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, there are no other pure lefties in the Reds’ lineup worth being worried about. Bruce actually has a worse strikeout rate against righties than he does against left-handers, and with Fernandez is averaging close to 15 strikeouts per nine innings against right-handers this season, take the over on this one as well.
Free MLB Pick: OVER 8.5 (+100)