Free Total Picks: Two MLB Games To Light Up The Scoreboard

Wednesday, July 6, 2016 2:45 PM GMT

Wednesday offers a full slate of games and below we will assess the board to determine which totals offer us the best chance to cash in our MLB picks today.

Swinger’s MLB Record: 45-23, +22.53 units
We took yesterday off but celebrated the Fourth in style as we cashed with the San Francisco Giants over the Colorado Rockies by the score of 3-1. Our MLB picks have been covering with regularity as our bankroll has swelled to over 22 units on the season and hitting a white hot 66 percent.

For those who don’t follow this column, I want to point out that every side or total we play is for one unit. We don’t subscribe to those who release 50, 100 or 500 unit plays because they are, quite simply, not realistic. A $50 per unit player is not going to beg, borrow and steal $25,000 to get down on a “can’t-miss” 500 unit play or some other whacky denomination that his preferred handicapper of choice releases.

We should note there are legitimate paid handicappers who sell their picks for profit and base their selections on a 1-5 scale with a regular play being branded a one and the strongest plays deemed a five unit play. I can live with that but what happens is when a capper goes bad you will find him releasing an increasing amount of five unit plays in order to get even.

Here we stick with our best plays as the single unit plays, and take the “steady as she goes” approach to the long grind that is the baseball season. In short, we review all the MLB odds, do our homework and hope that our due diligence pays off. So far it has and today we focus on the top totals of the day. Last Wednesday we won 2-of-3 totals and today we look to sweep. Let’s get it!

 

Brewers vs. Nationals
Both games have gone under the posted total in this series but we are looking for some post-July 4th fireworks in this series finale. The Brewers’ Matt Garza has been getting torched in his last pair of outings, allowing a combined 11 earned runs and 16 hits. His luck has not been good throughout his nine career starts against the Nationals as evidenced by his ERA of 7.21 and a WHIP of 1.832.

Washington’s Tanner Roark has had a better go of it lately with a combined two earned runs over his last two outings and an ERA of 2.61 with a WHIP of 1.209. Roark should do well against a lackluster Brewers’ offense but Milwaukee does have a somewhat decent on base percentage of .325 and should be able to manufacture a few runs with Ryan Braun (.322), Jonathan Lucroy (.299), Jonathan Villar (.290) and Aaron Hill (.284) leading the charge. The big bat of Chris Carter (20 HR and 49 RBI) could do some damage as well. Here are a few other stats to consider:

Over is 7-2-1 in Garza’s last 10 starts on four days of rest.

Over is 6-1 in Brewers’ last seven Game 3’s.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 9 -110
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Padres vs. Diamondbacks
We like trends and the trend in this game are most definitely over the posted total. The Padres’ games have gone high in six of their last seven games while the D-Backs have gone over in six straight. An average of 12 runs has been scored in the first two contests between these two teams with the third and final game of the series happening this evening.

San Diego’s Colin Rea has been pitching better recently but his 4.63 season ERA is evidence that he will eventually regress to the mean while Arizona’s Shelby Miller has been tagged with a dozen runs over his last two lackluster performances. Below are some stats to bolster our contention that there will be crooked numbers on the scoreboard in this one:

Over is 4-0 in Rea’s last four starts.

Over is 4-1 in Rea’s last five starts on four days of rest.

Over is 5-1-1 in Miller’s last seven starts vs. the NL West.

Over is 4-1-1 in Miller’s last six starts on four days of rest.

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Free MLB Pick: Over 9½ +100 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage